Unprepared for crises

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The UN's latest Global Risk Report underscores the world's lack of preparation for cascading future crises. While the report is focused on the world in general, Pakistan stands as a chillingly specific example of almost every one of the vulnerabilities the report outlines, and we face potentially catastrophic consequences if action is delayed. The report highlights extreme weather and critical changes to Earth systems as top long-term threats. For Pakistan, this is not a future threat, but a devastating reality — once-in-a-lifetime floods and other disasters occur every few years, most recently in 2022, when one-third of the country was underwater.

Compounding the environmental peril is Pakistan's profound economic fragility — another key risk highlighted globally. Crippling debt, inflation and political instability severely limit our capacity to invest in climate adaptation, resilient infrastructure or robust social safety nets. This creates a vicious cycle where climate disasters devastate the economy, leaving the government incapable of financing preparation for the next disaster, which invariably does even more damage than the last. All the while, millions of people suffer in poverty and insecurity. The report's warning about "resource rivalries" also resonates in water-stressed Pakistan, illustrated by ongoing tensions with India.

Meanwhile, the global response is still problematic, to say the least, especially since US President Donald Trump, a noted climate change denier, began pulling US funding and support for domestic and international climate adaptation efforts. And while global initiatives like the Loss and Damage fund agreed at COP27 offer hope, operationalisation is slow, and existing climate finance remains inadequate and difficult to access. For Pakistan and other similarly placed countries to avoid the brewing perfect storm of crises, we would need effective local adaptation, massive investment in resilience, debt relief and unwavering global climate justice, not just piecemeal responses that barely cover the cracks.