Point of no return?

The Director General of ISPR did not leave much to the imagination.

After his fiery press conference, in which he called PTI founder Imran Khan a mentally unstable person and national security threat, there are two questions resonating across the land:

What will the state do now? And, how will PTI respond?

The DG's combative presser comes in the wake of the formal elevation of Field Marshall Asim Munir as the Chief of Defence Forces and the Chief of Army Staff for a five-year term beginning now. This means he will occupy the powerful office till 2030, with the prospects of another extension till 2035.

Here are ten key points that address these two crucial questions.

1. Something triggered the DG's controlled verbal explosion at the presser. Was it the incendiary language by Khan against the military leadership? Or his sister unleashing criticism against the government on Indian TV channels? Or the former prime minister raking his own parliamentarians over coals and labeling them traitors for attending the National Security Workshop conducted by the military? Or was this a by-product of the new changes in the military high command – changes that have instilled greater confidence and continuity to the high offices, and those who occupy them? Perhaps it was a combination of all these, and other factors, that convinced the high command to cross another Rubicon.

2. What does the crossing of this Rubicon mean? The first possible implication may be a principal decision by the establishment – and by extension, the government – that PTI and its leadership shall have no role to play in the present system. Such a decision, if indeed taken, will manifest itself in a series of steps and actions – legal, administrative, political – aimed at degrading the ability of the party to exert its presence in any formal way within the system.

3. The timing is significant. For weeks we have been hearing that the verdict on Lt Gen (retd) Faiz Hameed's court martial is imminent. If Red Zone insiders are to be believed, the decision will almost certainly be linked to his role in the May 9, 2023 attacks on military installations and monuments. What will be of greater concern is if these attacks are proved to be part of a larger conspiracy against the military leadership. Such a conclusion, and its linkage to Khan, will suddenly change the complexion of the charges against the former PM. It will also dramatically escalate the longevity of his incarceration.

4. If this were to happen, and if the conspiracy charge becomes the foundation of his indictment and new sentencing, then the government is likely to initiate legal proceedings for formally banning the PTI. The process for such a ban is not an uncomplicated one, but if this executive-led process lands up in court – most likely the new Federal Constitutional Court – the government is not expected to face too much judicial resistance.

5. Such a radical decision may be preceded by some smaller steps. The intensity of the state's actions is likely to escalate incrementally. These may reflect in further restrictions on access to Khan, greater administrative pressures on the party cadres outside of Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa, and finally the big one: Governor's Rule in K-P. This last step now appears more likely than ever, though perhaps not immediately. After the DG's presser, it is clear that a PTI government in K-P does not fit into the state's plans in the aftermath of the 27th amendment. The expected 28th amendment, and the negotiations over the NFC award, both points towards this conclusion.

6. Add to this another factor. Deep structural and doctrinal transformations in the tri-services military command and control are already underway and details are expected to emerge soon. The CDF consolidated command structure, the National Strategic Command, the Rocket Force – these initial and stated structural innovations are expected to redraw Pakistan military's war-fighting doctrines at a time when another bigger conflict with India is not just possible but probable. As part of the plans to combat growing national security threats on three fronts – India, Afghanistan and domestic counter-terrorism – this new security architecture will determine and drive key priorities of the state. This will be the prism through which the high command views all other matters of governance, including the challenge from PTI. The gloves are clearly off.

7. So how does Khan respond? Most likely, he too will escalate. The escalation will come in the shape of harsher messaging through social media, harder orders of resistance for his cadre, and further inflexibility to engage with anyone from the government. This has been Khan's default position and it will not change under increasing pressure. Such an aggressive response from him will galvanise his core support base and further radicalise the campaign against the establishment in the digital domain. But there are limitations to what impact this could have on the state.

8. For greater impact, does Khan and his party have more options? Street options? Governor's Rule in K-P will be the party's first test. If PTI can warm the streets and generate significant instability, it may make its presence felt on the state. But if its response in K-P is as insipid as its resistance in Punjab, then it is likely to dilute the party's political weight within the system even further. The other option for PTI in such a scenario could be to move further to the extreme and – as a sign of resistance – double down on its opposition to counter-terrorism operations in K-P. The danger here is that it may find its rhetoric and policy positioning inching closer to those groups waging armed conflict against Pakistanis from the territory of Afghanistan.

9. But Khan has a not-so-secret weapon that may be his most potent response: staying in jail as a prisoner of conscience. Every day he braves the rigours of incarceration; every day he defies the brute power of the system to make him bend the knee; and every day that he refuses to make a deal, to excavate a compromise, to negotiate for relief – every day that he refuses to do any of this, he grows in stature, and in symbolic strength. The determinant of this policy, however, boils down to a simple question: whose side is time on?

10. It is now a zero-sum game. The ante has been cranked up. From here on, winner takes all, and the runners-up take a hard fall. The point of no return – long in the coming – is well and truly upon us.