Permanence in a world of flux

We live in times when alliances are made and unmade with notable abandon. Mirroring the footloose nature of hot international capital, major powers opt for instant advantage with little regard for the fortunes of smaller states tied to them, all in the name of national interest.

In this world of flux, Premier Wen Jiabao says; “no matter what changes might take place in the international landscape, China and Pakistan will remain forever good neighbours, good friends, good partners and good brothers”. The Chinese have always combined this reiteration of permanence with sober, behind -the- scenes sharing of their considered perceptions of a fast changing world, including a redefinition of their own responsibilities and interests as a global power. They have not preached to their Pakistani friends, much less interfere in their internal affairs, but they have counselled well. Interestingly, strong Chinese support comes at a time when western voices critical of Pakistan-China friendship are more strident than usual. Pakistan, it has been alleged, is playing the China Card to pressurise the US. Prime Minister Gilani had gone to China, as indeed President Zardari to Russia, as a result of continuing consultations but sections of the media and the odd Republican Congressman in the US chose to ring alarm bells that Pakistan was shifting gear. A major European media network asked me why Pakistan was provoking America by these visits.

What concerns me more is the growing number of “academic studies” coming out of the West that claim that the Chinese are tired of their Pakistani connection and that this historic relationship is in decline. Their arguments are easily summarised at the risk of some over simplification. The only reason why the two nations got together, it is said, was their common hostility to India after 1962. Secondly, the geopolitical situation has changed and China now seeks broader alignments and is wary of being tethered to Pakistan. Third, China is a trade-driven state and the target of $70 billion turn-over  in trade with India is a dynamic militating against Pakistan particularly when Pakistan is still unable to generate trade of even $ 10-15 billion per annum. Fourth, the extensive, albeit, ambivalent, Sino-US interaction views Pakistan, as an unruly, unpredictable nuclear- armed state that has to be managed firmly in the interest of regional stability. Fifth, the complicity of insurgent groups in the badlands of north-west Pakistan in attempts to radicalise Chinese Muslims and Pakistan’s alleged failure to provide full security to 13,000 Chinese workers in Pakistan continue to strain Sino-Pakistan alliance. Sixth, Pakistan has not been able to deliver on crucial projects like Gwadar forcing China to defer any further investment in it for the time being.

The fact of the matter is that none of this is news to Islamabad and Beijing and the two sides are constantly devising measures to eliminate hurdles. China has redoubled its efforts to help Pakistan improve its economy. A couple of more jolts from Washington and Pakistan’s bureaucracy would have no option but to overcome its legendary inertia and think beyond Washington and the IMF. The answer does not lie in a Chinese budgetary-support dole-out to replace the IMF but to enter into joint ventures for enhancing bilateral trade and extending Pakistan’s outreach. Washington and Beijing use the quadrilateral structure comprising US, China, Pakistan and India to pursue long term policy objectives; Washington does not want to shut down any of the doors within its parameters despite its big caveats on issues like the nuclear reactors and the Sino-Pakistan defence links. Above all, there is little doubt that the Chinese promise of eternal friendship is predicated on Pakistan putting its own house in order. Mr Gilani has to move beyond the self-hypnotism of rhetorical exchanges and get down to work to make the promise of permanence real.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 21^st, 2011.