The wider implications of Paris

Iraq war led by US let loose forces of anarchy that nurtured terrorist outfits, which are now coming to haunt the West

The murderous terrorist attack in Paris has shaken the conscience of the world and once again brought into focus the growing ability of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State (IS) to cause spectacular damage. This incident also demonstrated the meticulous planning that deluded one of the world’s best intelligence agencies. Its fallout will be far-reaching, spanning continents and regions.

There are several factors that have contributed to the emergence of the IS as a very powerful terrorist entity. The Iraq war led by the US and backed by the UK was an unmitigated disaster. It unravelled the state apparatus and unleashed forces of anarchy that nurtured terrorist outfits, which are now coming to haunt the West. Major world powers, in their quest for regional hegemony, continue to fight a proxy war in Syria as power slips away from Bashar alAssad. The Russians are supporting Assad, one of their few remaining allies in the region. The West has been arming and financing militias opposed to him. Muslim states, despite their empty rhetoric, have a major share in destabilising the region and giving space to the IS. Saudi Arabia, aligned with the West, is determined to topple its bitter enemy Assad while the Iranians are fully supporting him. For both the West and Russia, the IS was a secondary threat. Until recently, in order to destabilise Assad, US actions had actually ended up lending support to the IS. All these factors facilitated the group to rapidly expand its territorial gains in Syria.

The youth of the Middle East in particular, and the Muslim countries in general, is highly disillusioned with the ruling class. Disempowerment of the people, poor quality of governance and extreme corruption have facilitated the IS in attracting vulnerable segments of society to its ideology, which is a gross misrepresentation of Islam. The IS uses all the modern tools for its dissemination. There is scant hope that Arab rulers will revisit their policies and make their governments more representative and accountable. Dictated by self-interest, they have preferred to rely on major foreign powers to prop up their regimes. By ignoring the interests of their people, they are unable to retain their loyalties.

Globalisation and European integration have shrunk the world and provided enormous opportunities for economic growth. At the same time, these have also given terrorists an opening to take full advantage of. The terrorist attack in Paris was only a part of a broader strategy by militant groups to wage war on their own terms and as retaliation against what they consider the West’s unjust policies against their countries. The recent downing of a Russian passenger plane by the IS is another indication of its expanding reach.

There is no doubt that the West has to share blame in a big way for creating a Frankenstein by destabilising the Middle East, especially Iraq, Syria and Libya without providing any alternatives.

As expected, the French president has expressed his resolve to strongly retaliate against the IS. It is very much possible that in concert with its Western allies, France will be stepping up the air strike campaign in Syria. It also realises that the war against the IS cannot be won by air strikes alone and has to be accompanied by troops on the ground. This, too, will only provide temporary relief. The problem is more complex as these regimes cannot achieve stability with the existing political and economic order that relies on support of foreign powers.

Restrictions on the flow of refugees would be another negative fallout from this event. Extreme right political parties and conservative groups in Europe will exploit this incident by stoking anti-Muslim sentiment.

The barbaric policies of the IS are causing incalculable damage to the Muslim ummah and it is tragic that there is no joint or even group response from Muslim countries to confront this menace. It has been left to the West to take the lead in countering the IS. Iran and Saudi Arabia are locked in a geo-political struggle to seek dominance in the region. The other stark reality is that most Middle Eastern regimes are ruled by monarchies or dictators and rely heavily on the US or Russia to stay in power. It is this political environment that facilitates the growth of the IS and other radical organisations.

Israel would be delighted by the way Syria is fast melting down. It had a significant role in influencing US policies towards Iraq and Syria. The elder and junior Assads have courageously stood up to Israel’s aggression, notwithstanding other major weaknesses that have brought Syria to this stage. It is, however, too early to predict if Israel can insulate itself from the fires that are burning around its periphery.

The prospects for the ordinary people of Syria and other adversely afflicted Arab countries, such as Iraq and Libya, are extremely bleak — unbearable living conditions at home due to a raging civil war and a lack of a warm welcome in other countries with no solution in sight in the near future.

Every time there has been a major incident of terror, it has placed Muslim countries in a difficult situation. The 9/11 attacks dramatically changed the world and their impact still reverberates even today. Al Qaeda’s action turned every Muslim into a suspect. Most countries, especially those in the West, placed severe restrictions on the travel of Muslims. Afghanistan bore the brunt of the backlash and Iraq was routed. Pakistan had its share of misery. Western and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, were not interested in the genesis of radical Islam and conveniently forgot that they had a crucial role in creating this monster.

What is also intriguing is as to how the world and Muslim countries in particular have so readily accepted this group’s nomenclature as Islamic State. There cannot be a worst distortion and misrepresentation of Islam than what these bloodthirsty armed groups represent.

The IS may not be an immediate threat to Pakistan but danger of it taking roots, especially in weakly governed areas like Fata, Balochistan and Karachi cannot be ruled out, especially if conditions in Afghanistan remain volatile.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 18^th, 2015.

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