What next?

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One word that frequently appears in our discourse on a programme that I do on a television channel is 'maarooz' in Urdu. Perhaps the closest that I think of in compatible meaning in English would be 'context'. In my mind a finer refinement is 'obtaining conditions' meaning as conditions exist. Or in more popular terms 'ground reality'. A slang explanation of the same expression is 'read the room', determining what will work and hence appropriate. I bring this forth for consideration in the context of what PTI and Imran Khan face and what may guide their future course of action.

Imran Khan's falling out with the previous army hierarchy may be the 'original sin' but perhaps even before it the 'most original sin' would be his willingness to accept institutional offer to help form his government. In his interactions Gen Bajwa candidly admitted, corrupting the ballot is never easy but manipulating the result is. It is mostly in the pre-and-post-election phases that a party may be assisted into power. There cannot be a more open admission to political interference but then we live in the times of 'maarooz'. All over the world there are lobbies and financiers who sit on in inaugurations to prove the point - one just this week.

Democracy thus exists in gradations. Say from 1 to 9 on a stanine grade. Yet it is democracy that we grade even if assisted by a military in a developing world. It is not right. It should not happen. But when all else is up in tatters what may any establishment do? Saving the state becomes important, nay critical, while other niceties can wait. And then there are others who contribute to the 'maarooz': competing political interests and parties, media which is now as partisan the world over - nothing is neutral any longer; only interests sustain. So, character and morality are misnomers in politics anywhere. They buried those with Carter and the likes yet his morality as a president and person would be quite different.

So, we have an order in place which came about after the February 8 elections of last year. The majority party did not get to make the government. That is the rub that rules persistent instability. It is suggested the PTI could have but did not is merely convenient. I don't think there was a chance in hell that PTI would have been permitted to form one given the ugliest fallout the party had endured with the Establishment and after what its leadership, primarily Imran Khan, had resorted to in recrimination of the fallout. Why did it fall out is equally instructive and a part of the great game that composite nations like us must endure. On it another time, if I can gather enough courage in a multi-faith society.

As a timeline there are two possibilities: that this government, however it has been made up, will complete its time and elections held at the end of the tenure; or, events shape up from the social to the political to governance to judicial to external to internal and finally the most critical of them all, economic, which can upend this cart. That is the extent of what is in play here. The challenge is thus far bigger for the government than Imran Khan to somehow keep in power and retain its integrity and hold over it. For Imran Khan, it is waiting for that moment when the tenure is up which is a fixed date, stay healthy and relevant, and regain his mandate over people's will if it sustain till then. For the moment he seems to rule people's will as adversity mounts. He only needs to bide time.

Why the government might slip is laden with numerous possibilities. For one, they are more focused on eliminating Imran Khan as a factor if not in person. Long incarceration, they hope, may just weaken him to the point of becoming inactive in politics. Or, in the next five years his followers and voters may lose hope in his promise distancing themselves from his mission - maligning him incessantly is a part of the strategy. These five years may then return the lost voters in Punjab back to the PML-N. Routine political and governmental proceedings suitably enhanced by a fully manipulated media prove how much the man rides the minds of those who happen to be in power but feel their time is borrowed. To them Imran Khan's threat is real and clear and present danger. Their political fortune is tied to his status in politics.

As they indulge in saving and serving their political destiny they forsake their basic role in governance, administration, economic viability and social harmony. If it stays the way it is the camel might break its back sooner. That only enhances Imran Khan's chances of rehabilitation and resuscitation. The model of governance being employed is patently short-termism and convenient serving opportune political interest. It is not based on enhancing production or growth, rather distributing freebies. Such economics is regressive and unsustainable. Similarly outsourcing two key areas of governance, economy and security, to non-political appointees, the government may feel absolved of all blame if things don't go right but will also be the source of their singular biggest failure if both Punjab and the Centre fall short in any other way. This might bring the demise of the order in place far earlier than any time-bound assurance.

What may then Imran Khan do to survive this spate of challenges that he, his politics and his party are faced with - none with any less significant missteps of his own of which there are far too many to count. He must survive the ordeal, personally and in health; reflect over his mistakes and accept there were just far too many. He may like to change the tone of his pronunciations from confrontational and aggressive to collegial and constructive. He should stop posing being a threat or issue threats in machoistic appeal. He must reorganise his party at the district and lower levels with an active engagement and not just be restricted to using media as his tool of appeal. As the opposition in Parliament, he and his party must always appear as the government in waiting. That alone will make his politics viable and credible to all. His party has a crucial province to govern. He just cannot afford to take his eyes off that task.

Just as the government is singly focused on eliminating Imran Khan as a factor, he aids their cause by appealing to confrontation, agitation and assault. These are zero-sum options. Reading the room and understanding the 'maarooz' thus are key to riding out the storm. Focusing on what matters and will in the real sense count is what will ultimately bring us the elusive stability. The task ahead is clear and delineated as is the politics that will ultimately matter on all sides.