Sino-Russian cooperation and the world order

"Beijing and Moscow should work to unite countries of global South and promote the development of the international order in a more just and reasonable direction," said Chinese President Xi Jinping during his conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the occasion of the SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in Tiangin, China last week. The two sides called for strengthening mutual support for multilateralism, stability and peace for a just global order, while countering the West-led order.

According to an AI overview, "Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, particularly within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), plays a crucial role in regional stability and development. Both nations view the SCO as a platform for enhancing their comprehensive strategic partnership and addressing common challenges. This cooperation extends to various fields including security, economics, and cultural exchange, with both countries actively working to strengthen the organization and ensure its success". Russian president Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China on the occasion of SCO summit to be held in August 2025 in which it is expected that the two global giants will examine in detail how to play a leadership role in the prevailing world order.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose maximum tariff on Russia and provide military support to Ukraine through NATO. In the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war and West's unequivocal support to the Jewish state, it is expected that Moscow and Beijing will deepen their strategic cooperation under the platform of BRICS and SCO in order to provide an alternate leadership in world order. Majority of members of BRICS and SCO are supportive of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership and argue that if the two great powers remain united, an alternate to the US dollar and its biased trade policies may be agreed upon.

How can the Sino-Russian strategic partnership help ensure peace, stability and multilateralism and why does the Trump administration perceive the leadership role of Moscow and Beijing in BRICS and SCO a major threat to its interests? Will Sino-Russian strategic partnership sustain in the post-Putin and post-XI era and how will the two powers reshape their role in providing an alternate world order once the leaderships of Putin and Xi are part of history?

For decades China and the defunct USSR were adversaries but following the visit of Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev to Beijing in May 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the two neighbours forged a new relationship based on strategic partnership while freezing their unresolved territorial issues. Certainly, the West had benefited from the Sino-Soviet rivalry, but the replacement of the Russia-China animosity with friendship and meaningful cooperation challenged the US-led unipolar world. Certainly, a multipolar world is the vision of Russia and China which is gradually transforming into a reality.

Certainly, the US still dominates the world economic, military and technological order. With an economy of 28 trillion dollars and defence expenditures amounting to 900 billion dollars, America is still in a commanding position. Technologically also, the US is superior to Russia and China. But, with a huge debt of 37 trillion dollars, American economy is in dire straits. Russia, China and other ambitious powers want to take advantage of the US economic fault lines and its growing use of hard power, making it unpopular in different parts of the world.

One can figure out three major aspects of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership in the world today. First, the success of China in focusing on its economy and the failure of Russia to disengage itself from conflicts in its neighbourhood, particularly the war with Ukraine. China's rise as the world's second largest economy was because of its focus on development and the application of soft power like diplomacy, aid, investments and trade instead of military involvement in its neighborhood. This is not the case with Russia which has its ambitions in former Soviet republics. Its occupation of Crimea in 2014 and attack on Ukraine in February 2022 not only led to worldwide condemnation but imposition of sanctions. The Russian economy also suffered heavily because of its war with Ukraine. President Trump who had a soft corner for Putin is now forced to take a hard stance on Russia's refusal to accept American plan for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It means Russia is in dire straits and its efforts to widen its support base through BRICS and SCO cannot yield positive results.

Second, China needs to convince the Russian president to reverse its policy of hard power and withdraw forces from Ukraine. If Russia is unable to listen to Beijing's advice, it would mean further deepening of Moscow's military and economic losses in its war with Ukraine. When one major power in BRICS and SCO is not at peace, how can the Sino-Russian strategic partnership strive for a multipolar world? Presently, India is not happy with the Trump administration over the manner in which it dealt with the May 7-10 armed conflict with Pakistan and took the credit for the ceasefire. For India it is the ideal opportunity to put its weight behind the Sino-Russian strategic partnership so as to exert maximum pressure on Washington. Iran is also supportive of a multipolar world because it has suffered the most at the hands of America over the last several decades. South Africa is against the blatant US support to Israel, and the manner in which the American President dealt with the South African President during his meeting at White House proves growing cleavage between South Africa and the Trump administration. Likewise, other members of BRICS and SCO are also not supportive of the perceived American hegemonic designs and subscribe to the Sino-Russian strategic partnership to break the US dominance in the prevailing world order.

Finally, the forthcoming SCO summit in China provides a valuable opportunity for member countries to forge consensus on striving for a multipolar world. For that purpose, it is essential that contentious issues among SCO members are resolved through diplomacy. Notable in the context is the rivalry between India and Pakistan, the two nuclear-armed SCO members. Without bringing peace between the two, it will not be possible for Russia and China to transform the US-led world order.