The census methodology
Constituency-wise population figures that I obtained from NADRA 4 months back put figures accurate to the last digit.
The writer is general secretary of the PPP in Sindh and a former senator
Why should we insist on inaccurate, highly politicised, outdated and expensive ways of doing things when accurate, reliable, politically impartial, modern technology-based, low cost alternatives are available? The conduct of the national census (item nine of the Federal Legislative List) is one such matter, which has been muddled up because of our insistence on using outdated methodology. The Constitution refers to the census only at one place, i.e., Article 51 (5), where it says that “the seats in the National Assembly shall be allocated to each province, the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas and the Federal Capital on the basis of population in accordance with the last preceding census officially published”. Thus, according to our Constitution, a census is only binding while allocating the National Assembly seats to provinces, Fata and the federal capital. The Constitution does not lay down any fixed methodology for conducting the census. It is entirely up to us to determine the best methodology and legislate it through acts.
It should also be remembered that the Eighteenth Amendment, by placing census in the Federal Legislative Part II, has authorised the Council of Common Interests (CCI) to “exercise supervision and control” over the conduct of the census. Thus, instead of being an exclusive domain of the federal government, the census comes under the joint domain of the federation and the provinces. The provinces have as much control in the formulation of a reliable methodology as the federation has.
The Delimitation of Constituencies Act of 1974 lays down in its definitions (section 2) that “population means population in accordance with the [last preceding] Census officially published”. However, the said Act deals only with delimitation of constituencies of the national and provincial assemblies, which has to be decided upon by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The delimitation of constituencies of the local government does not fall under the purview of this Act and the jurisdiction of the ECP. It is the sole responsibility of the provincial governments, which are not bound by the definition of ‘population’ given in the Delimitation of Constituencies Act of 1974. The provincial government can obtain its population figures from any source that it deems appropriate. There is no logic in making 16-year-old figures that were controversial even at that time the basis of delimitation when more reliable population figures can be obtained from NADRA.
We have experienced how militant organisations made a mockery of the house count activity when this initial enumeration exercise was undertaken by the government in 2011. Even the provincial census commissioner in Sindh rejected the exercise undertaken by his own department after spending billions on it. Can anyone claim that the ‘door-to-door’ enumeration methodology of ascertaining population figures can succeed now or in the near future? In comparison, the constituency-wise population figures that I obtained from NADRA four months back put the figures accurate to the last digit. This figure was 21,347,871 for the total population of Karachi.
The ECP has already thrown out the old procedures of preparing and updating electoral rolls. Instead, it has relied upon the most accurate and often tried electronic database of NADRA for the purpose. The technology put at the disposal of NADRA by our government made it possible for voters to receive all the information about their vote within seconds just by entering their CNIC numbers on their mobile phones and sending an SMS. It is a pity that the courts insisted on the failed method of door-to-door verification in Karachi. The result was that the very reliable NADRA database was corrupted beyond recognition.
The operating law for conducting census in Pakistan was promulgated in March 1959 during the Ayub Khan dictatorship. Till date, it remains an Ordinance and not an act passed by parliament. The law provides for “obtaining certain information with respect to the population of and housing conditions in Pakistan” besides the census in its area of operation.
The previous PPP government conducted a poverty survey that was carried out by a rural support NGO. The questionnaire designed by this NGO had more than 45 questions. This survey used the electronic base of NADRA to collect data, which was much more comprehensive than what is collected by census officers. The entire BISP programme has been revamped on the basis of this poverty survey. At least in Sindh, all future poverty eradication programmes are being planned on the basis of this data. The NADRA database has been most successfully used when it has come to implementing programmes for IDPs, flood relief, etc. There have been very few complaints, which have been quickly rectified with the help of modern technology at the disposal of NADRA.
Thus, not only an accurate population count but detailed information about every individual citizen, housing conditions, etc. can be recorded. This information can also be made available to any organisation or even to ordinary citizens in a matter of minutes.
The census Ordinance gives the power to the government to “make rules for carrying out the purposes of this Ordinance” (section 19). What then is the impediment for not adopting a methodology that gives us the means for most efficiently carrying out the purposes of this Ordinance? Section 10 of the Ordinance makes “Census record not open to inspection”. I recall that in the 2011 house count exercise, the census department used this section to withhold information about the misdeeds of the department from the Sindh chief minister, me and the Sindh chief secretary. This section is in direct conflict with Article 19A (Right to information) and shall have to be deleted.
Laws are made to serve a purpose. A new ordinance can be promulgated any time after due consideration by the CCI. This ordinance can be adopted by parliament as an act to enable us to get the population figure ‘as it was yesterday evening’ and other information after a survey using NADRA data as the basis.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 21st, 2014.
It should also be remembered that the Eighteenth Amendment, by placing census in the Federal Legislative Part II, has authorised the Council of Common Interests (CCI) to “exercise supervision and control” over the conduct of the census. Thus, instead of being an exclusive domain of the federal government, the census comes under the joint domain of the federation and the provinces. The provinces have as much control in the formulation of a reliable methodology as the federation has.
The Delimitation of Constituencies Act of 1974 lays down in its definitions (section 2) that “population means population in accordance with the [last preceding] Census officially published”. However, the said Act deals only with delimitation of constituencies of the national and provincial assemblies, which has to be decided upon by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The delimitation of constituencies of the local government does not fall under the purview of this Act and the jurisdiction of the ECP. It is the sole responsibility of the provincial governments, which are not bound by the definition of ‘population’ given in the Delimitation of Constituencies Act of 1974. The provincial government can obtain its population figures from any source that it deems appropriate. There is no logic in making 16-year-old figures that were controversial even at that time the basis of delimitation when more reliable population figures can be obtained from NADRA.
We have experienced how militant organisations made a mockery of the house count activity when this initial enumeration exercise was undertaken by the government in 2011. Even the provincial census commissioner in Sindh rejected the exercise undertaken by his own department after spending billions on it. Can anyone claim that the ‘door-to-door’ enumeration methodology of ascertaining population figures can succeed now or in the near future? In comparison, the constituency-wise population figures that I obtained from NADRA four months back put the figures accurate to the last digit. This figure was 21,347,871 for the total population of Karachi.
The ECP has already thrown out the old procedures of preparing and updating electoral rolls. Instead, it has relied upon the most accurate and often tried electronic database of NADRA for the purpose. The technology put at the disposal of NADRA by our government made it possible for voters to receive all the information about their vote within seconds just by entering their CNIC numbers on their mobile phones and sending an SMS. It is a pity that the courts insisted on the failed method of door-to-door verification in Karachi. The result was that the very reliable NADRA database was corrupted beyond recognition.
The operating law for conducting census in Pakistan was promulgated in March 1959 during the Ayub Khan dictatorship. Till date, it remains an Ordinance and not an act passed by parliament. The law provides for “obtaining certain information with respect to the population of and housing conditions in Pakistan” besides the census in its area of operation.
The previous PPP government conducted a poverty survey that was carried out by a rural support NGO. The questionnaire designed by this NGO had more than 45 questions. This survey used the electronic base of NADRA to collect data, which was much more comprehensive than what is collected by census officers. The entire BISP programme has been revamped on the basis of this poverty survey. At least in Sindh, all future poverty eradication programmes are being planned on the basis of this data. The NADRA database has been most successfully used when it has come to implementing programmes for IDPs, flood relief, etc. There have been very few complaints, which have been quickly rectified with the help of modern technology at the disposal of NADRA.
Thus, not only an accurate population count but detailed information about every individual citizen, housing conditions, etc. can be recorded. This information can also be made available to any organisation or even to ordinary citizens in a matter of minutes.
The census Ordinance gives the power to the government to “make rules for carrying out the purposes of this Ordinance” (section 19). What then is the impediment for not adopting a methodology that gives us the means for most efficiently carrying out the purposes of this Ordinance? Section 10 of the Ordinance makes “Census record not open to inspection”. I recall that in the 2011 house count exercise, the census department used this section to withhold information about the misdeeds of the department from the Sindh chief minister, me and the Sindh chief secretary. This section is in direct conflict with Article 19A (Right to information) and shall have to be deleted.
Laws are made to serve a purpose. A new ordinance can be promulgated any time after due consideration by the CCI. This ordinance can be adopted by parliament as an act to enable us to get the population figure ‘as it was yesterday evening’ and other information after a survey using NADRA data as the basis.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 21st, 2014.