Energy, geopolitics and the green shift

China's transition shows how clean energy can reshape geopolitics and reduce conflict risks

ISLAMABAD:

Energy is one of the basic ingredients of life, along with water and food. In modern life, energy has become indispensable, and the entire system relies on it. From everyday chores to communication, transportation, production, and technology, every sector depends on energy in one way or another.

In short, modern life cannot be imagined without it. The literature indicates that the critical importance of energy also makes it a tool for peace and conflict. Over time, it has gradually evolved into a means of geopolitical influence and control, particularly after Dr King Hubbert's 1956 Peak Oil theory. He predicted that oil production in the United States would peak in the 1970s, and it did.

The US then aimed to prioritise Middle Eastern resources by building influence in the region and securing supply routes. In 1980, the Carter Doctrine was introduced, explicitly favouring aggressive containment of any interference in the Middle East to ensure energy security. It was also intended to control the flow of energy to weaken or dominate competitors or rivals.

Similarly, the USSR utilised its energy resources to gain dominance in Eastern Europe. These policies led to the emergence of the term "new energy cold war," a phrase that became increasingly common with the start of the 21st century. The situation became even more complex with the weaponisation of nuclear energy by the US and West.

The US and West also use energy trade as a tool to influence energy-rich countries and end users. For example, Iran faces sanctions on its oil and gas exports. The US and European Union have also imposed sanctions on Russia's oil and gas exports to win the war over Ukraine and to prevent shipments to China. The current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel, as well as the capture of Venezuela are also centred on energy, alongside other goals.

The recent statement by the Israeli PM about building a pipeline from the Gulf to Israel to supply energy to Europe further strengthens the argument. Moreover, the war also has a China containment angle. The US believes that choking off China's oil supply (as 54% comes from the region) will have negative consequences for China's society, energy, and industrial sectors. Moreover, by destabilising the Gulf region, they plan to undermine Chinese investment and trade there.

In this context, as fossil fuels become a source of conflict, the world is seeking alternatives that can sustain economic growth, maintain lifestyles, and promote lasting peace. Clean and renewable energy has emerged as a promising option, giving rise to the idea of a green transition.

Consequently, the green transition is expected to reduce geopolitical influence and warfare by shifting focus and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. It also offers a pathway to address climate change, which the United Nations Security Council recognised as a serious threat to global security in 2009. Many military agencies, including those of the US, EU, and UK, have also declared climate change a major security concern.

Despite this potential, there is ongoing debate about whether the green transition is achievable in the near future. Questions remain about whether global targets can be met when the US has opted out of the Paris Agreement at various points and several countries continue to resist commitments.

In this context, China has taken the lead by launching a comprehensive green transition initiative with clear objectives, structured programmes, and a defined path. It adopted a systematic approach, first identifying energy transition as the most critical factor, and then building a complete ecosystem around it.

China began by developing clean and renewable energy sources through numerous small- and large-scale projects. Notable examples include Xinjiang, where a 3.5 GW solar farm worth $2.3 billion benefits around three million households, and installations on the Tibetan Plateau spanning roughly 610 square kilometres - roughly the size of Chicago).

These efforts are yielding results. By 2025, China's total installed power capacity reached 3,890 gigawatts, including around 1,200 gigawatts of solar, 640 gigawatts of wind, and approximately 1,500 gigawatts from coal. This marked the first time that solar and wind energy surpassed coal in Chinese history.

China is also promoting renewable energy consumption and renewable-based products such as electric vehicles. It has offered incentives including preferred credit, easier registration, and fee waivers. As a result, China became the largest producer of EVs, manufacturing 16.6 million units, and the largest exporter, shipping 3.4 million units in 2025.

This success is driven by strong political commitment and substantial investment. Data suggest that China invested nearly $2.1 trillion in clean energy-related sectors in 2025, comparable to the size of major global economies. Investment in clean energy alone exceeded $1 trillion. The sector contributed nearly one-third of China's economic growth and accounted for 90% of total investment.

China has also established itself as the largest producer and exporter of clean technologies, accounting for over 80% of solar panel manufacturing, 70% of EV production, 72% of wind turbine manufacturing, and 75% of battery production. In addition, it continues to invest in nuclear and hydropower. This diversified and robust clean energy base has enhanced China's resilience to fossil fuel shocks.

However, China recognises that the green transition is incomplete if its benefits are not shared. It has supported other countries by transferring technology in solar, wind, EVs, and nuclear sectors. It is also working to transform the Belt and Road Initiative into a Green BRI. Initiatives under this framework include the Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition, the Green Development Coalition, the Silk Road Environment Programme, the Green Silk Road Envoy Programme, and various technology exchange platforms. China is also testing climate-resilient and green special economic zones.

Moreover, under "China's Actions on South-South Cooperation in Addressing Climate Change," it has mobilised 177 billion RMB for developing countries and signed 53 MoUs with 42 nations.

Now, imagine a scenario where a large economy reduces its reliance on fossil fuels and helps others do the same, it can significantly lower global demand and reduce geopolitical tensions. This would redefine energy security while also lowering greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the Xinjiang solar project alone is expected to cut emissions by over six million tonnes annually.

In conclusion, several inferences can be drawn. First, a green transition is achievable if a country has the political will. Second, it can reduce dependence on fossil fuels while addressing climate change. Third, China's success enhances its resilience to energy shocks. Fourth, it can help reduce conflicts linked to fossil fuel competition. However, each country must adopt solutions aligned with its own realities. In Pakistan's case, this suggests prioritising nuclear and hydropower.

THE WRITER IS A POLITICAL ECONOMIST AND VISITING RESEARCH FELLOW AT HEBEI UNIVERSITY, CHINA