One message tipped the scales

Inside Pakistan's last-minute diplomatic breakthrough

ISLAMABAD:

All bets were off. The world and the region were preparing for the worst. At one point, it looked all Pakistan's efforts to seek an end to the hostilities would come to naught.

Pakistani authorities dealing with the intricate process, however, did not give up.

The story of Pakistan's involvement in seeking rapprochement between the United States and Iran started in June last year. It was during the 12-day Iran-Israel war, which the US later joined, that threw Pakistan into the limelight.

US President Donald Trump inviting Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir was public knowledge, but what happened afterwards and the discreet role Islamabad played during the last 10 months was not known much.

The 12-day war ended with choreographed strikes by Iran on Doha, but Pakistan, sensing the fire was doused temporarily, kept working behind closed doors to broker a deal between Tehran and Washington.

The White House Trump-Munir meeting was instrumental in establishing personal contacts between the US President and the Field Marshal. But significantly, the Field Marshal's constructive role managed to win the trust of the top Iranian leadership.

"People may have forgotten the June war but we did not," said a senior Pakistani official familiar with the development. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, disclosed that Pakistan had opened a "discreet" channel between Tehran and Washington following the war.

At one point, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar exchanged different proposals between Iran and the US.

The official said months before the recent war, Pakistan quietly pushed for a deal between Iran and the United States.

Pakistan shared a set of draft deal with the United States.

The draft envisaged Iran committing not to seek nuclear weapons in return for lifting of sanctions. The secret talks broke down after the US wanted to bring the Iranian ballistic missile issue into the final deal, something Iran was not willing to accede to.

When tensions were building up before the latest phase of hostilities, Islamabad once again came into the fray in order to prevent the crisis. While Oman hosted talks between Iran and the United States, Pakistan launched a parallel channel, seeking de-escalation.

Days before the US and Israel bombed Iran on Feb 28, Pakistan reached out to Iran seeking a meeting with its Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Field Marshal wanted to seek an audience with Khamenei as a last-ditch effort to avert the US and Israeli strikes.

The Iranian authorities welcomed the Pakistani endeavours but declined the request for a meeting with the Supreme Leader, citing security concerns.

It was not clear if the visit could have avoided the US and Israel assassinating the Supreme Leader, but it did highlight Pakistan's close involvement even then to prevent the war from happening.

Nevertheless, when the war started, Pakistan was not just walking a tight diplomatic rope but literally navigating landmines. Iran is a neighbour, while Gulf countries—now under attack from Iran—were Pakistan's partners and, for some, financial lifelines.

The conflict this time was different because Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries. Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia in September, and Iranian strikes on Riyadh made Islamabad's challenge even more daunting.

Yet, Pakistan opted to pursue the diplomatic path, leveraging its unique position of having close ties with all relevant countries party to the conflict.

"It was not an easy decision. Some of our Gulf partners were not happy. They were not supporting mediation efforts. They wanted Trump to finish the job," remarked a source who was briefed on the matter.

Pakistan, nevertheless, absorbed the pressure and pushed for diplomacy, offering channels of communication to the warring sides.

Initially, it met with little success, but as the war grew more intense, the fear of a wider conflict became real. That was when Pakistan emerged as a key interlocutor. The task, however, was extremely difficult, if not impossible.

As the world watched helplessly, drones and missiles flying across the region, ships stranded at the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices through the roof, Pakistan established secure communication lines to give diplomacy a chance.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his deputy Ishaq Dar were at the forefront, reaching out to relevant parties, but the actual work was being done behind closed doors at the military and intelligence levels.

About 10 days ago, those diplomatic efforts were about to bear fruit as a meeting was set between Iranian and US officials in Islamabad.

But the widening trust deficit between Tehran and Washington prevented that meeting from happening, not once, but twice.

"We were disappointed at one point," admitted another official. "We thought all was lost."

But given the stakes were too high and if the war dragged on, Pakistan would have been compelled to take sides, the effort continued.

There was a perilous moment when all sides were close to an understanding. Iran's strikes targeting Saudi petrochemical factories drew a furious response from Pakistan.

The Foreign Office and the Corps Commanders issued strong statements condemning the strikes, while privately informing Tehran that such attacks could potentially close the small window of diplomacy.

Iran was told that if this window was shut, the results would be catastrophic. The message eventually nudged Iran to agree to an arrangement that unfolded with the late-night post of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

It was a carefully calibrated move designed to give both sides an off-ramp. What happened after the Prime Minister's post on X was inevitable. Pakistan had done what few were ready to bet on. Many even questioned Islamabad's ability and capacity to pull off something that is now for the history books.

"Despite this historic success, vigilance is required. Detractors and inimical elements may try to discredit this feat," cautioned a security source.

"It should also be remembered that the job is only half done," the source added.