Future scenario and security architecture in Middle East

The 40-day US-Israel war on Iran, punctuated by a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, neither had a just cause nor a crystallised war aim. The fluctuating war objectives included: elimination of Iranian leadership to engender a regime change; halt of Iran's nuclear programme that was claimed to have been obliterated in June 2026; destruction of its missile and drone programmes; total capitulation; capture of Kharg Island; control of Strait of Hormuz; etc.

The previous talks with Iran, in June 2025, were used by the US as a charade. Unfortunately, requisite consensus at home, allies' support and deliberations to carve out a war fighting and war ending strategy appear to be amiss too. The resignation of Jospeh Kent, the NCTC Director, with the assertion that "Iran posed no imminent threat to USA" adds to the illegitimacy of this war being fought for Israel at the cost of the US.

Death and destruction, erosion of peace and increased instability in the region has helped no one but Israel, given that the KSA-Iran rapprochement brokered by China has become a casualty of this war. Also, the US efforts remained focused on defending US assets in the Gulf region and Israel, to the disappointment of the Arab states.

Now that a ceasefire is holding and peace talks begin in Islamabad, it is difficult to predict the future of this conflict that has engulfed the whole region like an inferno. The unstated war aims could be: 1) to carve a new regional order/security architecture dominated by Israel, for which they seek to maul Iran to the extent that it ceases to remain a challenge to Israel for decades; 2) to control Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea; and 3) to increase the cost of US security umbrella for the GCC countries.

Iran wouldn't acquiesce to become a compliant state. If the US wishes to avoid a non-ending expensive war, then it will have to recalibrate its war aims. To an extent, some change is already visible in the utterances of the US president and the secretary of state. They are already claiming victory saying that Iranian economic and military capabilities have been destroyed; that they are negotiating with 'a new Iranian leadership'; and that Strait of Hormuz is partially open.

If both sides don't readjust to the ground realities and the ceasefire fails, it may become a protracted war spanning years. Iran is well prepared for a non-linear, asymmetric hybrid war. The US troops would dilute in gigantic Iranian mountains, deserts and ravines studded with tunnels; trapped and targeted from all around. It could evolve into a catastrophic war destructive for the whole region, including Israel. Russia and China may support Iran indirectly but are unlikely to join the war physically. This war, in all probabilities, shall end at a stalemated embarrassment. It could also act as a catalyst hastening US and Israel decline.

In case of the ceasefire failing, the global economy will see worst of the times. Escalating cost and dearth of energy, food, water, health and environmental hazards will make the life on this planet a nightmare. Entrapped in a non-profitable war, the US-Israel coalition may resort to irrational and unexpected choices. The consequent mayhem benefits no one but the US-Israel coalition, the conglomerate of proxies and terrorists, and the military industrial complex.

Israel's desires for prolongation of the war to ensure as much weakening of Iran as possible is a hurdle to the ceasefire graduating into permanent peace. However, what could make the situation more complex is the ego of the world's most powerful country and the Zionist dream of 'Greater Israel'. Nonetheless, it is presumed that the world wishes end of the conflict, albeit with face saving for all warring factions. Therefore, the best option for the US is to end this war and exit by choice. The snowballing opposition to President Trump comprising more than eight million 'No King' protesters also points in the same direction.

Post-war, increased sense of insecurity in West Asia might result in enhanced dependence upon US-designed security architecture with Israel accepted as a regional power with no challengers; expansion of Abraham accords; and more oil, gas and weapon contracts for US companies. And Iran, being a resilient civilisation, will resurrect like phoenix from the ashes of this war in due course.