Crime is often analysed as a rational response to economic incentives, as theorised by Gary Becker (1968), where individuals weigh the expected benefits of crime against the risks of punishment.
This theory is evident in Pakistan, where the high profitability of organised crime networks continues to outpace the risks posed by law enforcement. For instance, the illicit drug trade in the country generates billions annually, yet weak legal deterrence and corruption allow these activities to persist with relatively low conviction rates.
However, some scholars argue that factors such as social structures, psychological conditions and historical marginalisation also contribute to criminal behaviour, making it a multifaceted issue.
Recent statistics indicate the gravity of crime in Pakistan, with some cities experiencing improvements while others continuing to struggle. Lahore has witnessed a reduction in crime, with total reported cases dropping to 4,686 in the first two months of 2025, compared to 12,739 in 2023 and 9,566 in 2024.
This has been attributed to proactive policing measures, increased patrolling and use of modern surveillance technology. In contrast, Islamabad has reported a surge in violent crimes, with 891 reported cases of kidnapping and 152 incidents of rape and sexual assault in 2024, pointing to gaps in enforcement and resource allocation.
Karachi remains a hotspot for street crimes, with over 90,000 incidents being recorded in 2023, highlighting the ongoing challenges in tackling urban crime.
These regional variations underscore the need for strategic policy adjustments tailored to the unique challenges faced by each city.
Pakistan's police force operates under severe financial constraints, reducing its ability to deter crime effectively. Response times have been affected, with reports indicating that emergency police response in high-crime areas often takes significantly longer than the global standard. Additionally, case resolution rates remain low, with conviction rates for major crimes such as armed robbery and homicide struggling to exceed 20%.
The failure of deterrence in Pakistan can be attributed to the low probability of punishment. Economic evidence suggests that increasing the certainty of punishment has a stronger deterrent effect. The Street Crime Initiative in the UK demonstrated that increased police presence led to a measurable decline in crime rates.
In the US, broken-windows policing improved law enforcement efficiency by focusing on swift, targeted interventions rather than generalised severe punishments. Applying these principles to Pakistan, the optimal approach would be to expand police presence in high-crime areas, invest in rapid-response units and reduce judicial backlogs to strengthen the credibility of punishment.
Economic incentives also shape crime rates. Recent data from Pakistan shows a strong correlation between economic downturns and rising crime rates. For instance, during periods of high inflation and economic instability in 2023 and 2024, there was a noticeable surge in property crimes and theft, particularly in urban areas. Unemployment has been a key driver, with rising joblessness contributing to an increase in street crimes.
Applying economic principles to crime and law enforcement offers a structured approach to crime reduction in Pakistan. Policymakers should focus on enhancing police accountability, streamlining judicial processes and incorporating economic policies that reduce the appeal of crime. The government must also consider a more data-driven approach to crime prevention, using predictive analytics to allocate resources where they are most needed.
Increasing investment in forensic technology, expanding community policing initiatives and ensuring better coordination between law enforcement agencies can significantly improve crime prevention efforts. Additionally, targeted interventions, such as improving police response times, funding investigative processes adequately and implementing transparent oversight mechanisms, should be prioritised to create a more effective and trustworthy law enforcement system.
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