CPEC development could not bring election success for PML-N
Bar on local players from participating in CPEC projects dented govt’s relations with special interest groups
CPEC is the one common ground that dissolves party lines and is considered as a magic cure for our growing unemployment problem. PHOTO:FILE
ISLAMABAD:
Last month’s national elections in Pakistan were a critical test of whether delivery of the biggest and boldest infrastructure plan in decades could fetch another electoral victory for the previous government.
However, the poll results showed little correlation of electoral success with infrastructure agenda.
In the distant past, governments have been throwing millions around for infrastructure needs and these projects served as a vehicle to channel money from public finances to campaign coffers.
Due to high levels of clientelism, one used to see roads in central Punjab that were always under construction or maintenance as these projects were merely an eyewash to generate campaign funds.
Politicians often started projects to pacify voters and at the end of the day, the construction quality was always found to be poor due to patronage leakages. Kickbacks in civil works helped raise party funds, with contractors and landowners getting overpaid to secure political support.
This phenomenon was not just unique to Pakistan, but countries like Japan and the US also exhibit high levels of patronage in politics of megaprojects.
However, this was not the case when the previous government rolled out the red carpet for CPEC projects. As most of the contractors were Chinese, the element of clientelism was usually absent.
There is no doubt that the CPEC narrative had wide resonance, but it could not secure full political buy-in and could not translate into constituency-level granularity.
The fact that local players were barred from participating in CPEC project bids dented the previous government’s relations with special interest groups that provided humongous amount of money to fund elections.
So, instead of redistributing taxpayers’ money to special interest groups and big industrialists, the CPEC rain poured over Chinese contractors and state institutions. This broke the established cycle of direct patronage and dented local vote banks, affecting the dynamics of election campaign in the long run.
When a motorway project is financed by the Chinese and awarded to the Chinese, there is little incentive for the government and the whole political machinery to seek maximum value for least costs.
In the absence of our traditional ecosystem, based on patronage, as Friedman’s law of spending predicts, these CPEC projects not only overspent, but also failed to score brownie points with voters.
With increased electoral volatility and political competition, there was a need to outflank rival parties by expanding clientelistic infrastructure programmes, whose supply actually decreased. Stopping this gravy train of rent-seekers was actually harmful to the previous government in the long run.
The direct federal spending of CPEC loans - $65 billion – has proved too low to stimulate subsequent billion-dollar infrastructure investments.
Moreover, CPEC programming has distorted the established ways of picking and prioritising projects, and has been relying on vague expectations, when it comes to economic benefits, such as the number of jobs created.
CPEC tide to lift all boats, Marri tells students
The steamrolling of procurement regulations and best practices in transparency made CPEC a tough sell from the outset. So it was very naive on the part of the PML-N machine to bet everything on the CPEC brand, whilst ignoring the fact that buying votes require financial resources of interest groups that in return receive preferential access to public procurement.
Infrastructure may be the stepping stone, on which our economy could be built. CPEC is the one common ground that dissolves party lines and is considered as a magic cure for our growing unemployment problem.
PTI invites PML-N parliamentary leaders to Imran's oath-taking ceremony
But the body’s politic needs to decouple CPEC from our traditional politics, based on patronage and infrastructure, and should not be used as a short-term bargaining chip for election campaigning.
PML-N to win elections, predicts The Economist
Blocking local partners from participating in CPEC contracts was a cock-up and not a conspiracy, but in the world of politics, such blunders and howlers are inevitable. What is important is that one needs to step back and reflect on what went wrong.
The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a strategy consultant
Published in The Express Tribune, August 13th, 2018.
Last month’s national elections in Pakistan were a critical test of whether delivery of the biggest and boldest infrastructure plan in decades could fetch another electoral victory for the previous government.
However, the poll results showed little correlation of electoral success with infrastructure agenda.
In the distant past, governments have been throwing millions around for infrastructure needs and these projects served as a vehicle to channel money from public finances to campaign coffers.
Due to high levels of clientelism, one used to see roads in central Punjab that were always under construction or maintenance as these projects were merely an eyewash to generate campaign funds.
Politicians often started projects to pacify voters and at the end of the day, the construction quality was always found to be poor due to patronage leakages. Kickbacks in civil works helped raise party funds, with contractors and landowners getting overpaid to secure political support.
This phenomenon was not just unique to Pakistan, but countries like Japan and the US also exhibit high levels of patronage in politics of megaprojects.
However, this was not the case when the previous government rolled out the red carpet for CPEC projects. As most of the contractors were Chinese, the element of clientelism was usually absent.
There is no doubt that the CPEC narrative had wide resonance, but it could not secure full political buy-in and could not translate into constituency-level granularity.
The fact that local players were barred from participating in CPEC project bids dented the previous government’s relations with special interest groups that provided humongous amount of money to fund elections.
So, instead of redistributing taxpayers’ money to special interest groups and big industrialists, the CPEC rain poured over Chinese contractors and state institutions. This broke the established cycle of direct patronage and dented local vote banks, affecting the dynamics of election campaign in the long run.
When a motorway project is financed by the Chinese and awarded to the Chinese, there is little incentive for the government and the whole political machinery to seek maximum value for least costs.
In the absence of our traditional ecosystem, based on patronage, as Friedman’s law of spending predicts, these CPEC projects not only overspent, but also failed to score brownie points with voters.
With increased electoral volatility and political competition, there was a need to outflank rival parties by expanding clientelistic infrastructure programmes, whose supply actually decreased. Stopping this gravy train of rent-seekers was actually harmful to the previous government in the long run.
The direct federal spending of CPEC loans - $65 billion – has proved too low to stimulate subsequent billion-dollar infrastructure investments.
Moreover, CPEC programming has distorted the established ways of picking and prioritising projects, and has been relying on vague expectations, when it comes to economic benefits, such as the number of jobs created.
CPEC tide to lift all boats, Marri tells students
The steamrolling of procurement regulations and best practices in transparency made CPEC a tough sell from the outset. So it was very naive on the part of the PML-N machine to bet everything on the CPEC brand, whilst ignoring the fact that buying votes require financial resources of interest groups that in return receive preferential access to public procurement.
Infrastructure may be the stepping stone, on which our economy could be built. CPEC is the one common ground that dissolves party lines and is considered as a magic cure for our growing unemployment problem.
PTI invites PML-N parliamentary leaders to Imran's oath-taking ceremony
But the body’s politic needs to decouple CPEC from our traditional politics, based on patronage and infrastructure, and should not be used as a short-term bargaining chip for election campaigning.
PML-N to win elections, predicts The Economist
Blocking local partners from participating in CPEC contracts was a cock-up and not a conspiracy, but in the world of politics, such blunders and howlers are inevitable. What is important is that one needs to step back and reflect on what went wrong.
The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a strategy consultant
Published in The Express Tribune, August 13th, 2018.