Opinion

Divergent outlook on Afghanistan

The divergence of interest between US and Russia on Afghanistan could be the start of another geopolitical struggle

Amna Ejaz Rafi April 27, 2017

The writer is a researcher at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute

Russia’s growing interest in Afghan affairs is apparent from Moscow’s hosting of peace talks. The recent talks on ‘peace in Afghanistan’ were held in Moscow in the middle of April. Representatives from Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan participated in the talks. Earlier, similar initiatives include the Trilateral Dialogue between Moscow-Islamabad-Beijing and a round of consultations in Moscow, in which China, Pakistan, India, Iran and Afghanistan participated. Moscow supports negotiations with the Taliban. As per the statement of the Russian foreign ministry, “A call has been sent to the Taliban movement to abandon its line for a military solution of the Afghan conflict in favour of direct talks with the Afghan government.”

The situation in Afghanistan has been a source of concern for regional as well as global players. Since the war against terrorism, the security situation in the country has continued to worsen, with no worthwhile progress on the political and economic sides. The recent peace efforts in Afghanistan should not be seen in isolation, the stakeholders in the talks are regional players. Russia, China, Central Asian states and Pakistan have borne the brunt of Afghan wars, due to geographic proximity. The presence of Da’ish elements in Afghanistan has further heightened the security threat and concern for regional actors.

The materialisation of Central-South inter-regional connectivity cannot be possible without peace in Afghanistan. The upcoming China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is yet another endeavour, linking China, Pakistan, Central Asia, Caucasus and Russia but peace in Afghanistan is a must. The regional states desirous of progress will have to look for a collaborative approach focusing towards economic/regional cooperation. The talks on Afghanistan might be instrumental in bringing the regional players to a negotiating table, dissuading the mistrust and fostering regional integration.

The US and Nato role in Afghan affairs is crucial. A day before the talks in Moscow, the US dropped a bomb on Da’ish hideouts in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar. The Resolute Support Mission deployed in Afghanistan has 13,000 Nato troops, including 8,400 of the US. These troops are involved in training Afghan security and defence forces. The US and Nato being significant players in Afghanistan were not present in either of the talks. During the first two rounds of the talks, Moscow did not invite the US, while in the third round an invitation was sent. According to US State Department spokesman Mark Toner, “It seemed to be a unilateral Russian attempt to assert influence in the region that we felt was not constructive at this time.”

The lack of participation from the US and Nato signals a divergent stance. The US views the Taliban as a major source of instability in Afghanistan. While Russia is opposed to Da’ish’s ingress in the country and through cooperation with the Taliban wants to isolate the evil threat. According to Afghan President’s National Security Adviser, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, “Moscow supports talks with the Taliban, aimed at facilitating reconciliation in Afghanistan.” In view of the US narrowing down of troops from Afghanistan, Moscow might be trying to reinforce its influence in the country.

The US has been wary of the ‘Russia Afghan peace diplomacy’. It has accused Moscow of arming the Taliban, and undermining the US presence in Afghanistan. The US Central Command Chief, General Joseph Votel, said, “I think it is fair to assume they may be providing some sort of support to the Taliban, in terms of weapons or other things that may be there.” Russia has defended its position with regard to the Taliban, calling the US accusations “fabrications designed to justify the failure of the US military in the Afghan campaign.” The divergence of interest between the US and Russia on Afghanistan could be the start of another geopolitical struggle between the Cold War rivals, with Afghanistan once again as the theatre of competing interest.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 27^th, 2017.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.

COMMENTS (4)

Naveed Mahmood | 7 years ago | Reply A very thought provoking article covering present and future aspirations by the old rivals of cold war. Unfortunately US always considered themselves owner and policeman role in the region. Despite of such heavy losses they are still siting like that if the have conquered whole of Afghanistan where as fact is that the puppet government is no more than other Kabul. All stake holders must realize the importance of Pakistan in bringing the peace in the region but unfortunately presence of Indian and supported by US is major hurdle in stabilization. All the stake holders must realize that time is running out and new upcoming leadership in Taliban really wants this issue to settle but presence of ISIS supported by US and India will turn up things really bad in a times to come. Pakistan must play the cards very carefully and with out any fear of US on the issue.

khattak Khushal | 7 years ago | Reply Many have failed the test of bringing Taliban to table, so would be Russia. Taliban have learned killing from birth & nothing else. The only way out of this death & destruction is to defeat & disable Taliban in Afghanistan with the help of the region.

VIEW MORE COMMENTS

Feroz | 7 years ago | Reply Taliban good and X, Y, Z bad is not a sound strategy that can bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. It is the Taliban that controls more than 20% of Afghan territory where its writ runs, The same area is also where the TTP and Daesh are located and the latter two would not have been able to establish base there without Taliban support. All these militants are portable without any strong loyalty, their allegiance shifting from one banner to another fluidly. To believe Taliban is some distinct identity whose ideology is very different from the other banners is merely deluding oneself. Everyone wanting to fish in troubled waters and supporting one or the other terror groups is a very short sighted approach that can blow up in the face sooner than later. Without global unity and pooling of resources a concerted effort to clean out all of them with force if necessary, will not happen. The lingering problem will not simply derail CPEC but also OBOR initiative. Unless Pakistan, Iran, US, China, Russia and India all support a common path, any plan will fail. The goals and interests of all these players have to align to win the support of the Afghan people and meet their aspirations.

Sexton | 7 years ago | Reply Strange how the problems in Afghanistan have grown exponentially since the US/NATO and other people moved in or interfered either directly or covertly. Also, and just by coincidence similar problems occurred in Iraq, Libya and Syria once the same group started to interfere either directly or covertly. I suppose we have to presume it was just bad luck and the group were unlucky?

Replying to X