The battle for Lahore

Whoever successfully rigs today’s election in NA-122, Lahore, genuinely deserves a Sitara-e-Imtiaz

Whoever successfully rigs today’s election in Lahore genuinely deserves a Sitara-e-Imtiaz.

Steps have been taken and measures introduced. CCTV cameras are spying inside every polling station and army troops stand guard everywhere, watching everything that moves. Imran Khan’s workers have been crash-coursed into anti-rigging monitoring and the Election Commission staff is extra vigilant knowing the stakes. In short, the NA-122 by-election is turning out to be the most monitored polls in recent memory.

And yet, could the election still be stolen?

By nightfall today, the result will be clear, but the final outcome may not. So much is riding on this election now, so much has been invested by both parties, and so much is there to lose for the loser that a definitive result, accepted by all fair and square, almost sounds like a miracle.

For Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, this is not an electoral contest anymore — it’s personal. And this makes it dangerous. Very dangerous.

Which is why Lahore is on the edge. Tens of thousands of men and women are deployed across the constituency to prevent any untoward incident. Control rooms are buzzing with activity, receiving minute-by-minute reports from areas designated ‘sensitive’. Everyone wants a clean outcome. That may be asking for the moon.

Yes indeed, perhaps even the sun because moon and Mars have already been traversed by Neil Armstrong and Matt Damon. Is the PML-N ready to lose its speaker? Is the PTI ready to lose its face? The answer is more obvious than most would like to think.



And, therefore, we are all locked and loaded into a predicament: how to avoid an undemocratic outcome of a democratic exercise. This uneasiness hides itself in plain sight on the streets of Lahore today. Amidst the honking of noisy horns and unfurling of fluttering banners, echoes the sound of silent dread. What if the loser cries foul? What if the winner is not accepted as such? What if the tightest of arrangements and closest of monitoring come to naught? What if the best effort is still not good enough?

NA-122 is a by-election, but clearly it is more than that. Here in this city, it portends to be Panipat and Waterloo rolled into one. Friday’s jalsas by the PML-N and the PTI made it abundantly clear that the election will be a fight to the finish — a winner-takes-all contest where the losing party fears loss of credibility and legitimacy. The outcome of today’s battle royale will cast long shadows on the general elections of 2013 and 2018, plus the upcoming local body elections.

Never has a single constituency election meant so much to so many in such a few days.

But there will be life after today. Thank God for small mercies. Lahore will gradually pipe down as waves of supporters recede back to their homes, dejected or ecstatic. Yes, there will be cheers and lamentations, shouts and howls, yells and yelps, and TV screens will drip with emotion and drama. Men will roar in press conferences and growl in studios as the momentum of politics shifts back within the confines or comfortable indoors. There will be damage done and pain inflicted. We will witness the viciousness being mainstreamed along with idiocy and hyperbole.

But in the middle of this mayhem, one fact will stand alone and firm: the durability of the system till the 2018 elections. By now, it is clear that everything that everyone in every political party does every day is aimed at one single objective: General Elections 2018. For now, it seems there will be no change of guard before that.

And this puts today’s Lahore election into a certain perspective. If Sardar Ayaz Sadiq wins, he will return as speaker and the PML-N will boast till there is not a single boast left within Saad Rafiq and Abid Sher Ali. The validity of the 2013 elections will be revalidated to a great extent and the issue of rigging as an effective weapon to be used against the government will be shelved. Nawaz Sharif and his merry men and women will then return to their governance that has as much sparks as the Nandipur project. Their destination: 2018.

Imran and his team will cry foul and attempt to put on a brave face. Their attempt will fail. They will, however, keep flaming rigging matters to keep the pot boiling for the local body elections. Their real destination: 2018.

If Aleem Khan wins, it will amount to a tactical nuclear strike on Fortress Sharif. There will be annihilation within the PML-N rank and file, and the credibility of the 2013 elections will be subjected to inhuman torture. The PML-N will get a pummeling it cannot even imagine. It will be raked over the coals in the media and whipped into silence by the ferocious PTI warriors. Khan will fly high and aim for a fatal blow to his nemesis.

And yet, Nawaz Sharif will survive because the fatal blow will never connect. There is now just too much invested in this system by all stakeholders. Too much is happening at the strategic level, and too much has been pledged with continuity to risk an upheaval. If Aleem Khan wins today, the PTI will win big, but it will be a tactical and localised win that will boost PTI prospects — for 2018.

The battle in the heart of Lahore today promises excitement, action and an amazing political extravaganza. What it does not promise is a major change. At a time when we have had an overdose of upheavals, a bit of controlled stability may be just what the doctor ordered. So, if you’re in Lahore, go out and ride the wave of political energy; and if you’re not, sit back and watch the circus unfold on your TV screens. When it comes to a political match, it doesn’t get better than this one.

Let’s just hope we do not have to hand out a Sitara-e-Imtiaz.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 11^th, 2015.

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