Analysing Pakistan’s human development ranking

Impressive long-term human development gains can be made without consistent economic growth.

The UNDP Human Development Reports should have a special significance for Pakistan, given that one of our prominent economists, the late Dr. Mahbubul Haq, played an instrumental role in conceptualising and launching these reports.

The first of these reports was published back in 1990 and its 20th edition has been released earlier this month. The human development index (HDI), which is part of this annual UNDP publication, aims to rank countries based on education, health and income achievements, which provide an alternative to purely macroeconomic assessments of national progress. This year’s HDI ranking is considered particularly important as it has been refined using indicators that were unavailable for most countries when the HDI was first introduced.

Pakistan is ranked 125th out of 169 countries in the HDI rankings for 2010. Pakistan’s current HDI value (0.490) places us in the medium human development category. Other countries in South Asia have the following rankings: Sri Lanka (91), Maldives (107), India (119), Bangladesh (129), Nepal (138), and Afghanistan (155). Pakistan’s human development achievements place us between India and Bangladesh. Yet our index value is below the South Asian average (0.516) as well as the average value for medium human development countries (0.592).

In comparison to the previous year, Pakistan’s HDI ranking has shown an upward trend. But the UNDP has cautioned that the current year’s ranking should not be compared to previous years due to the use of different methodologies of calculation. Therefore, Pakistan’s movement up the HDI ranking should be taken with a pinch of salt. Moreover, this ranking was calculated before the floods hit, the human development impact of which has been significant.

Generally, the HDI is not designed to assess progress in human development over short time periods since many of its component indicators do not change rapidly in response to policy changes. For instance, it takes time for health policies to result in improved life expectancy at birth. Yet it is useful to review HDI progress over the medium to long-term. Looking at such a broader time period, Pakistan’s HDI value has increased (from 0.311 to 0.490; over a 50 per cent increase) over the past 20 years. Still there is a long way to go. One issue which needs particular attention is the status of women in the country. According to a more recent UNDP formulated measure, the Gender Inequality Index, which reflects women’s disadvantages in reproductive health, empowerment and economic activity, Pakistan is dismally ranked 112 out of 138 countries.

Another major lesson reconfirmed by this extensive analysis is that the exclusive pursuit of economic growth does not assure human development. In fact, impressive long-term human development gains can also be made without consistent economic growth. Hopefully, our decision-makers will keep these emergent trends in mind the next time they are considering cuts in the development budget.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 26^th, 2010.