How serious is the IS threat?
Taking a passive approach at this time will jeopardise gains and allow the IS sympathisers an opportunity to intrude
The IS demanded the release of Aafia Siddiqui earlier this year, a woman long imprisoned in the US for attacking Americans in Afghanistan. In exchange, it offered to release James Foley and Steven J Sotloff. Both of these American journalists have now been beheaded. Did the IS make a calculated move by asking for Siddiqui’s release in order to garner support from terrorist groups within Pakistan, or was it a genuine request?
The group primarily operates in the Middle East and has also taken over large swathes of Syria and Iraq. Its swift success has energised some jihadis and IS logos, pamphlets and posters have popped up in some spots in Pakistan. In September this year, a pamphlet was distributed among Afghan refugees in the country encouraging them to join the IS against the “infidels”. Six TTP commanders pledged allegiance to the IS and their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a month later. These events led to fear in some circles that the TTP are aligning themselves with the IS to share the limelight and to reinvigorate their movement. In extreme cases, some have openly wondered about the possibility of the IS gaining access to nuclear weapons.
In an era of violence and turmoil, people can hardly be blamed for expecting the worst. However, for the TTP to officially recognise the IS, they will have to cut ties with al Qaeda, as well as the Afghan Taliban. This is not an easy task since the source of TTP authority is their affiliation with the Afghan Taliban. Meanwhile, al Qaeda has been weakened by military operations and drone strikes. Competition among these groups might result in pressure to prove their own relevance. The main risk lies in groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi aligning themselves with the IS to continue their sectarian war in Pakistan.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, will be an easy target for the IS considering the withdrawal of US forces leaving a hastily assembled Afghan security force to maintain order. This condition is eerily similar to another recent US exit which preceded the IS power grab in Iraq. The IS claims to already have around 10,000 recruits in the tribal areas of Afghanistan, including in Hangu, which is infamous for sectarian conflict. Signs of its presence within Afghanistan are hard to ignore. Terrorists carrying black IS flags carried out attacks in the country which left more than 100 dead last September. Several villages in Ghazni province were captured, police officers and family members were beheaded, and homes were set on fire. Militant movement and illegal trade along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is a problem but the newly completed trench along the Pakistani side between Balochistan and Afghanistan might help restrain those acts.
Even though the IS is only present symbolically in Pakistan, it is still a cause for concern. By seeking to align with the IS, the Taliban are trying to establish a relevance that they have lost due to recent military operations. The government would be wise to act while it has the momentum on its side. Taking a passive approach at this time will jeopardise gains and allow the IS sympathisers an opportunity to intrude. This threat had better be restrained before it morphs from possible danger into actual acts of violence and bloodshed, something that this country has seen enough of already.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 15th, 2014.
The group primarily operates in the Middle East and has also taken over large swathes of Syria and Iraq. Its swift success has energised some jihadis and IS logos, pamphlets and posters have popped up in some spots in Pakistan. In September this year, a pamphlet was distributed among Afghan refugees in the country encouraging them to join the IS against the “infidels”. Six TTP commanders pledged allegiance to the IS and their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a month later. These events led to fear in some circles that the TTP are aligning themselves with the IS to share the limelight and to reinvigorate their movement. In extreme cases, some have openly wondered about the possibility of the IS gaining access to nuclear weapons.
In an era of violence and turmoil, people can hardly be blamed for expecting the worst. However, for the TTP to officially recognise the IS, they will have to cut ties with al Qaeda, as well as the Afghan Taliban. This is not an easy task since the source of TTP authority is their affiliation with the Afghan Taliban. Meanwhile, al Qaeda has been weakened by military operations and drone strikes. Competition among these groups might result in pressure to prove their own relevance. The main risk lies in groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi aligning themselves with the IS to continue their sectarian war in Pakistan.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, will be an easy target for the IS considering the withdrawal of US forces leaving a hastily assembled Afghan security force to maintain order. This condition is eerily similar to another recent US exit which preceded the IS power grab in Iraq. The IS claims to already have around 10,000 recruits in the tribal areas of Afghanistan, including in Hangu, which is infamous for sectarian conflict. Signs of its presence within Afghanistan are hard to ignore. Terrorists carrying black IS flags carried out attacks in the country which left more than 100 dead last September. Several villages in Ghazni province were captured, police officers and family members were beheaded, and homes were set on fire. Militant movement and illegal trade along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is a problem but the newly completed trench along the Pakistani side between Balochistan and Afghanistan might help restrain those acts.
Even though the IS is only present symbolically in Pakistan, it is still a cause for concern. By seeking to align with the IS, the Taliban are trying to establish a relevance that they have lost due to recent military operations. The government would be wise to act while it has the momentum on its side. Taking a passive approach at this time will jeopardise gains and allow the IS sympathisers an opportunity to intrude. This threat had better be restrained before it morphs from possible danger into actual acts of violence and bloodshed, something that this country has seen enough of already.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 15th, 2014.