Public talk: Pakistan’s nukes are safe, says Fitzpatrick
Mark Fitzpatrick’s book “Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers” launched.
Mark Fitzpatrick’s book “Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers” launched.
A western strategist has underlined that extremists getting hold of nuclear weapons was in theory possible but said that Pakistan had put in place a stringent security system, making it hard for them to obtain them.
The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) organised a public talk and book launch “Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers,” by International Institute of Strategic Studies-UK Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick on Thursday.
ISSI Chairman Ambassador (retd) Khalid Mahmood opened the event underlining Pakistan’s security compulsion vis-à-vis India in pursuing a nuclear weapons programme when all avenues to keep South Asia a nuclear-free zone were exhausted.
Fitzpatrick presented his view on dangers associated with Pakistan’s nuclear weapons that was a refreshing break from most Western perspectives. He highlighted the potential for escalation of South Asia’s strategic arms race and the subsequent increased potential for theft, sabotage and especially nuclear terrorism as well as concerns that Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons technology might again be transferred to nuclear aspirants.
Fitzpatrick said that while the danger of extremist groups getting hold of nuclear weapons was in theory possible, the threat was exaggerated out of proportion in the Western media.
He highlighted the case of proliferation by the AQ Khan network, but pointed out that Pakistan had put in place stringent export control, and taken measures to ensure it did not happen again. For this reason, he argued, it was time to move on and relieve Pakistan of the burden of the stigma that came with the proliferation scandal.
Fitzpatrick termed Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as one of the world’s fastest growing and the security competition as unidirectional in a triangular relationship between Pakistan, India and China whereby India’s security concerns and arms competition were fuelled by a much larger China and Pakistan’s by a much larger India.
He warned against the potential of a nuclear war, possibly triggered by terrorist activities such as the 2008 Mumbai attack. He gave recommendations for overcoming threats to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal by suppressing extremist groups to allow the country entry into the nuclear club.
As a consequence Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal presently estimated to be around 120 is projected to exceed 200 by year 2020 which was a cause of great concern for major powers around the world.
Fitzpatrick suggested that Pakistan negotiate the Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty (FMCT) and sign The Comprehensive Cut Off Treaty (CTBT) to give it a diplomatic high ground and to lock in India’s nuclear weapon potential which was much greater than Pakistan’s. He also suggested negotiating with India to settle issues that may spark a nuclear war.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 9th, 2014.