A tough summer ahead

The government should give up political adventurism in order to stay on top during and after this summer.

The unprofessional reporting by a news channel after the attack on Hamid Mir in Karachi on April 19 had an unintended consequence of outpouring of support for the military and the ISI. The unprecedented support for the military and its role for the defence and security of Pakistan came from all sections of the political and societal elite, political and religious parties and groups, especially conservative and radical Islamic movements, trading groups and others. The pro-military banners, posters and wall-chalking could be seen in many cities.

The federal government did not realise the gravity of the situation caused by the propaganda against the ISI in particular, and the army, in general, by a news channel until the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) took a strong exception to it. The visit of the army chief to the ISI headquarters demonstrated his confidence in the ISI and rejected what was aired by the news channel.

The ministry of defence filed a strong complaint against the news channel with Pemra, the semi-government media regulatory body, demanding maximum punitive action against that channel. This complaint appears to have been filed on the insistence of the Army Headquarters rather than on the initiative of the federal government. This was obvious from the subsequent statements by the highest level people in the federal government that the news channel would not be banned. However, some federal ministers criticised the news channel for its anti-military propaganda.

The outpouring of support for the military and the ISI was in sharp contrast to the widespread criticism of the army top brass in the wake of the mass movement by the lawyers, political parties and societal groups against then President General Pervez Musharraf in 2007.

The situation was totally reversed in April-May 2014, when politically and socially active civilian circles profusely praised the military. Even the media groups that talked of media freedom and opposed the demand for banning the news channel did not criticise the military; most acknowledged the role of the military for national security.

The efforts to rehabilitate the image of the military in the aftermath of the mass movement of 2007 was initiated by General Ashfaq Parvaiz Kayani after he assumed the command in November 2007. He issued several statements in support of democracy and constitutionalism and the army/ISI adopted a non-partisan disposition towards the February 2008 general elections. A good number of serving army officers were withdrawn from civilian appointments and the army top command stepped back to give more space to elected civilian leadership. They began a shared decision-making with the civilian leadership on foreign policy and security issue.

However, the army top commanders always reacted strongly when they felt that the military institution was being subjected to unnecessary criticism or the civilian government was encroaching on the areas viewed as military’s internal and professional domains. Three incidents showed the army’s strategy to put its foot down if it felt that its professional and corporate entity was being threatened. First, the PPP government’s failed attempt in 2008 to bring the ISI under the control of the interior ministry. Second, the military’s public criticism of the provisions of the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill (September-October 2009) that encroached on the military’s internal and professional affairs. Third, the Memo issue (2011-2012) that was viewed by the military as the PPP government’s effort to get US support through its ambassador in Washington to weaken the role of the military.

In the case of the last two incidents, the military publicly displayed its displeasure, which prompted popular support for the military against the PPP government. The Political Right and religious groups and parties, including some radical religious groups, were active in supporting the military and criticised the civilian government. In the case of the Memo issue, the PML-N supported the military and Nawaz Sharif filed a case with the Supreme Court against the federal government and its ambassador in Washington. There was so much pressure on the PPP government towards the end of 2011 that many political observers predicted its quick collapse.

In April-May 2014, the PML-N federal government led by Nawaz Sharif faces pressures from the military. The Political Right and religious groups and parties that supported the military in 2009 and 2011-12 are now expressing solidarity with the military in the backdrop of the attack on Hamid Mir. The PPP leaders acknowledged the positive role of the military for internal and external security and distanced itself from the news channel’s one-sided propaganda. However, unlike the PML-N in 2011-2012 on the memo issue, the PPP did not try to embarrass the PML-N federal government.

The army chief’s statement on April 30, 2014 for upholding the Constitution and democracy should give a breathing space to the federal government. However, the federal government should restrain its ministers from public denunciation of the military and former military rulers in order to demonstrate civilian primacy. The civilian rulers should pay more attention to creating a credible civilian alternative to military dominated political order by better governance and delivery of services to the people.

The federal government’s domestic problems are going to increase as the electricity crisis deepens in the summer months. Imran Khan and Dr Tahirul Qadri have made a shrewd decision to take to the streets to further weaken its popular support base.

The federal government’s additional problems during this summer include the cases against Pervez Musharraf and the dialogue with the Taliban. The PML-N top leadership should overcome the ideological barriers to see the irrelevance of the dialogue process and how can they justify prosecuting only one person under Article 6 after the Eighteenth Constitutional Amendment.

It is going to be a tough summer for the federal government. It faces the threat of political isolation which will limit its options. It should, therefore, give up political adventurism and an unrealistic wish list in order to stay on top during and after this summer.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 5^th, 2014.

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