Pakistan’s comfort zone
US is looking for Pakistan’s support for stable Afghanistan; but Kabul’s support is as important to Pakistan as...
The writer is a senior subeditor at The Express Tribune
Pakistan is in the spotlight and is getting what it always wanted –– it is the shoulder the US is leaning on as the superpower battles to protect its strategic interests in Afghanistan. India does not seem to be in the picture, much to Islamabad’s delight. During the recent two-day Pakistan-US Strategic Dialogue in Washington, US Secretary of State John Kerry welcomed his counterpart (although an adviser) Sartaj Aziz with open arms, acknowledging Pakistan’s efforts in the realm of nuclear safety and security. Kerry expressed confidence in the country’s commitment and dedication to nuclear security and appreciated Pakistan’s efforts to improve its strategic trade controls. This was an important ‘vote of confidence’ for Pakistan as its nuclear security and export, or transit of military and dual-use items has been a sticky issue in relations that had undermined the country’s credibility in the international community.
The secretary of state even went on to say that Pakistan had the potential to be an ‘Asian tiger’ as envisioned by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and extended his long-term support for the goal. While in Washington, Pakistan was being praised, glasses were being raised and backs were being patted, in Kabul, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was huffing and puffing. He released 72 high-profile (militant) detainees, shocking many, and is now churning out one demand after another, leaving the US with extremely limited choices for the future.
He has refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which gives immunity and ensures protection of the residual US troops that will be left behind, until his conditions are fulfilled. His latest demand to the US is simple: persuade the Afghan Taliban to engage in peace talks with the Afghan government before you leave. He knows the US is pressed for time as it needs to plan accordingly, i.e., whether to reallocate resources or pull the plug. And he also knows that the US supports talks with the Afghan Taliban, but facilitating the dialogue is ‘absurd’.
The BSA was endorsed by the four-day Loya Jirga in November last year, calling on the Afghan president to sign it. The upper house of the Afghan parliament, plus tribal and political leaders, also gave the nod. Then why is Karzai not signing the BSA? Why is he raising his guard, making more demands, causing more hurdles? He is probably pursuing a natural, yet parochial goal –– self-preservation.
As scheming as it sounds, he is mainly hedging his bets for his political survival after the US leaves or maintains a minimal retinue. Depending on which way it goes –– whether the BSA is agreed upon with limited American presence or the US opts for the zero option after negotiations fail –– Karzai wants it done before the country goes to the polls, so that he has enough time to strike political deals and forge new alliances.
Pakistan also has its eyes on the Afghan presidential elections. Taking a rather pragmatic approach, Islamabad indicated that it would be more feasible to talk to those who come into power after the polls. “My own feeling is that after the election, the Afghan Taliban will probably talk to the new government more … than the present government,” said Aziz during his visit to Washington. In a judicious policy move, Pakistan also chose not to interfere in the BSA-Karzai broil. Aziz said that while experts felt the proposed security agreement would help stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan believed that “it’s for the Afghans to decide whether they want to do this deal”. Therefore, it will wait for the fog to clear. Once Karzai is out and (maybe) the US is out, Pakistan will make its move. This caution and prudence is commendable, but Pakistan seems a bit overconfident. Things can go either way, with new alliances being forged and other groups, namely Hibz-e-Islami, coming to the fore. And what if Abdullah Abdullah wins the elections? We all know his strong anti-Pakistan sentiment.
The Americans are looking for Pakistan’s support for a stable post-2014 Afghanistan, but Kabul’s support is and should be as important to Pakistan as America’s. Pakistan is in its comfort zone, but it should not get too comfortable. It needs to be carefully planning for post-presidential election scenarios, keeping in mind the situation in its own tribal areas. Before and after the elections, the country must make a profound effort to improve relations with the western neighbour and control cross-border activities. In the next six months, Pakistan must plan, act and follow through to regain its credibility in Afghanistan, keeping aside its quasi-colonialist strategic objectives.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 4th, 2014.
The secretary of state even went on to say that Pakistan had the potential to be an ‘Asian tiger’ as envisioned by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and extended his long-term support for the goal. While in Washington, Pakistan was being praised, glasses were being raised and backs were being patted, in Kabul, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was huffing and puffing. He released 72 high-profile (militant) detainees, shocking many, and is now churning out one demand after another, leaving the US with extremely limited choices for the future.
He has refused to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which gives immunity and ensures protection of the residual US troops that will be left behind, until his conditions are fulfilled. His latest demand to the US is simple: persuade the Afghan Taliban to engage in peace talks with the Afghan government before you leave. He knows the US is pressed for time as it needs to plan accordingly, i.e., whether to reallocate resources or pull the plug. And he also knows that the US supports talks with the Afghan Taliban, but facilitating the dialogue is ‘absurd’.
The BSA was endorsed by the four-day Loya Jirga in November last year, calling on the Afghan president to sign it. The upper house of the Afghan parliament, plus tribal and political leaders, also gave the nod. Then why is Karzai not signing the BSA? Why is he raising his guard, making more demands, causing more hurdles? He is probably pursuing a natural, yet parochial goal –– self-preservation.
As scheming as it sounds, he is mainly hedging his bets for his political survival after the US leaves or maintains a minimal retinue. Depending on which way it goes –– whether the BSA is agreed upon with limited American presence or the US opts for the zero option after negotiations fail –– Karzai wants it done before the country goes to the polls, so that he has enough time to strike political deals and forge new alliances.
Pakistan also has its eyes on the Afghan presidential elections. Taking a rather pragmatic approach, Islamabad indicated that it would be more feasible to talk to those who come into power after the polls. “My own feeling is that after the election, the Afghan Taliban will probably talk to the new government more … than the present government,” said Aziz during his visit to Washington. In a judicious policy move, Pakistan also chose not to interfere in the BSA-Karzai broil. Aziz said that while experts felt the proposed security agreement would help stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan believed that “it’s for the Afghans to decide whether they want to do this deal”. Therefore, it will wait for the fog to clear. Once Karzai is out and (maybe) the US is out, Pakistan will make its move. This caution and prudence is commendable, but Pakistan seems a bit overconfident. Things can go either way, with new alliances being forged and other groups, namely Hibz-e-Islami, coming to the fore. And what if Abdullah Abdullah wins the elections? We all know his strong anti-Pakistan sentiment.
The Americans are looking for Pakistan’s support for a stable post-2014 Afghanistan, but Kabul’s support is and should be as important to Pakistan as America’s. Pakistan is in its comfort zone, but it should not get too comfortable. It needs to be carefully planning for post-presidential election scenarios, keeping in mind the situation in its own tribal areas. Before and after the elections, the country must make a profound effort to improve relations with the western neighbour and control cross-border activities. In the next six months, Pakistan must plan, act and follow through to regain its credibility in Afghanistan, keeping aside its quasi-colonialist strategic objectives.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 4th, 2014.