Sino-Japanese stand-off: The game-changer

The East Asian region is on the boil with two global economic powers, China and Japan, faced with an alarming spat over the Senkaku-Diaoyu dispute — the abandoned isles in the East China Sea. Tensions spiked last November when China declared an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, covering vast air space much to the chagrin of Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the Japanese premier’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay homage to the Japanese war dead and war convicts brought a strong reaction from both China and South Korea. This move was construed as tantamount to extolling Japan’s past militarism.

The Chinese ADIZ has upped the ante and is a test for the US. The disputed islands fall under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which in the case of any untoward event, requires the US to defend Japan. Historically, the islands did not belong to any country till their occupation by Japan in 1895 in the wake of the Sino-Japanese war. Archival evidence, however, suggests that the Chinese had sovereignty over these islands prior to that war. China is of the view that the islands should have been returned to it after the Second World War. Instead, their control passed on to the US authorities based in Okinawa. In 1972, this control was transferred to Japan without resolving the issue of sovereignty.

The row can be seen to be the prism through which the two regional powers are looking into their past, which has not been a very pleasant one. They are also looking into future, which promises them a bigger and a far more strident role in the region. With China emerging as a major power, the US-led order in East Asia is under stress. China is going to overtake the US in the coming years in many respects. In Japan, questions are being raised about pacifist clauses in the country’s Constitution, which renounces the country’s sovereign right to arm itself, with only a self-defence force allowed to be maintained. Security needs are mainly met through the treaty arrangement with the US. The current nationalist Japanese government is wishing to adopt a more strident approach and the sparring with China should be seen in that context.

The fallout is spilling over to the proximate regions as well. The South China Sea is rife with territorial disputes. Very recently, the local government of the southern Hainan province in China imposed restrictions on foreign fishing vessels by making it mandatory for them to seek prior permission before entering waters claimed by China. This development has caused disquiet in other countries in the region, which have counterclaims on these waters and they are fearing this move to be a harbinger of another ADIZ in the South China Sea.

In another significant development, Japan is closing ranks with India, which has had border issues with China. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the first Japanese leader to have been the chief guest at the Republic Day parade in Delhi on January 26. The event was laced with symbolic connotations. There was a high profile display of weaponry and military prowess before a leader of a country whose Constitution renounces the use of force. India has extended to Japan an invitation to join its naval exercises alongside the US in the Indian Ocean, while Japan has shown interest in ramping up the export of nuclear technology to India. This will signal a shift in Tokyo’s policy on a highly sensitive issue as so far, it had been reluctant to sell nuclear technology to India because of that country’s refusal to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

These events allude to the fact that the focus in the years to come will shift from the West to East Asia in many ways. As regards the stand-off in the East China Sea, one only hopes that the parties succeed in evolving a workable agreement. The situation should be of keen interest for Pakistan as China has been our all-weather friend during times of adversity, while at the same time, we also need to remember that when we were under US sanctions, Japan had been our largest donor in terms of providing economic assistance.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 4^th,  2014.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.