The sixth sense of analysts

Govt needs Early Warning and Early Response, analysts and experts say.

KARACHI: Key analysts and international relations experts belonging to different countries of South Asia held a brain-storming session on Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) as a measure to ward off increasing world conflicts, especially in the region.

The one-day session held at Hotel Regent Plaza on Saturday and organised in collaboration with the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Colombo and Global Platform for the Prevention of Armed Conflicts (GPPAC), the Netherlands. The aim was to enter into a meaningful discussion on EWER to effectively deal with social and political issues faced by the countries of South Asia.

EWER aims to alert and caution state authorities and societal forces on how to cope with natural and manmade disasters. In a situation where the threat of conflict escalation is not properly understood, a government is not warned in time and thus able to deal with an impending catastrophe. This often leads to colossal human suffering.

The idea was first discussed by Israel Charney in 1982 after which it gained significance in the literature of the international community in the early 1990s when the UN placed emphasis on it.

For South Asia, social and political conflicts are a source of major instability. The number of inter-state conflicts have been decreasing globally, out of the 14 existing main conflicts defined in a 2008 report, three of the major ones exist in South Asia, ie, Afghanistan, India (Kashmir) and Sri Lanka. Not only this, the world is increasingly moving from larger conflicts to smaller and more violent ones that are more so in SA. Besides this, there are also conflicts related to humanitarian and food crisis, natural disasters, genocide and human rights violations and conflict prevention.

In the first session chaired by Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, IR professor at the University of Dhaka, emphasis on designing a regional agenda and regional action plan for EWER was laid out. Dr William Tsuma, programme manager, prevention action of GRRAC, explained its global framework. According to him, there should be a needs assessment, action plan, mobilization of civil society, advocacy for action and monitoring of the situation for the agenda.

In the second and third sessions that focused on conceptualising the plan for SA, the perspectives of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka on EWER were presented. The speakers agreed on the pressing need of the idea and its implementation in the region.

The discussions that followed at length highlighted the different problems being faced by these countries and how EWER can make a difference.

The analysts discussed the role of culture, politics, civil society and youth in EWER and emphasised that unless governments make an immediate response, the issues, even when pre-identified will not be prevented.

Ever since 2001, Pakistan has been fighting a war in the north-western side and has been constantly troubled by inter-communal terrorism. India had deadly inter-communal conflict in Gujarat in 2002 between the Hindus and Muslims besides other issues. Sri Lanka is facing a great human crisis at present.

Bangladesh has witnessed bomb blasts orchestrated by fundamentalists, although the country returned to democratic rule in Dec 2008. In Nepal, even after the end of a 10-year political war between the government and Maoist rebels, small-scale violence is continues in the Terai region.

For Pakistan, Dr Moonis Ahmer said that in a country of 180 million, people are continuously vulnerable to political and social conflicts. Potential issues which provide enormous scope in the field of EWER include, political implications of internally displaced peoples, election and post-election violence, state-versus-militant groups, a lack of good governance, ethnic and class-based conflict, HR violations, religious and caste-based persecution, gender- and youth-based issues, health issues, and a collapse of public utilities. Giving the example of Karachi, he said that in the city an alarming increase in the population of Pakhtuns in the presence of an existing community is a warning but there is no response.

He also proposed that the mandate of the National Disaster Management Authority that was made in response to the 2005 earthquake should be increased to include EWER.

Published in The Express Tribune, October  2^nd, 2010.