However, even in this region, there are some constituencies where the Bhutto appeal has completely failed to work. Poll after poll, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has been defeated by the likes of insurmountable rivals - MQM, PML-F and the Arbabs.
These ‘unusual’ constituencies are in the Hyderabad, Sanghar and Tharparkar districts of the Hyderbabad and Mirpurkhas divisions.
Authority of an Arbab
In Tharparkar, the influential Arbab family has maintained its clout since the 1985 polls, when Arbab Amir Hassan was elected as an MNA. From 1990 onwards, the family has been headed by Arbab Ghulam Rahim, former chief minister of Sindh.
The district has two NA and four provincial seats. In the last seven elections, PPP only managed to secure one seat and that, too, when Rahim joined the party in 1993. In 2002 and 2008, the Arbab group won all the seats on the National Alliance and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) platforms, respectively.
This time around, the Arbabs have withdrawn their NA-230 candidate in favour of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) Vice Chairperson Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Furthermore, they are facing tough competition from PPP’s Faqir Sher Muhammad Shah on NA-230.
“People used to vote for the Arbabs out of fear, not love. They know that only the PPP can liberate them from their tyranny,” said Qaim Ali Shah, PPP’s provincial president at a public meeting in Thar. On this occasion, the Lanjhar community of Mithi, Thakkars and representatives from 84 villages, all of who supported the Arbabs in the past, announced joining the PPP.
According to sources close to the Arbabs, Qureshi will give up NA-230 after winning the elections and Razzak Rahimon will then contest by-polls. Qureshi enjoys a considerable following, due to his Sarwari Jammat.
MQM’s domain
The politics of Hyderabad are dominated by the ethnic vote - Sindhis always vote for the PPP and the Urdu-speaking vote for the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM). The district has three NA and six provincial seats. Of these, NA-219 and NS-220, based in Latifabad and City tehsils, have a large Urdu-speaking population.
The PPP has never won NA-220. Even the 1993 polls, which were boycotted by the MQM, a PML-N candidate defeated the PPP ticket holder. Since the party was founded in 1988, the MQM has only lost once, and that to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam’s Sahibzada Muhammad Zubair in 2002.
PPP vs Pagara
Sanghar comprises six tehsils. Of these, Sanghar, Jam Nawaz Ali, Khipro, and Sinjhoro are the heartland of the Hurr Jamaat of Syed Sibghatullah Shah Rashdi, popularly known as Pir Pagara. Since 1970, the PPP has not won a single election in these areas.
Furthermore, PPP candidates have only twice been elected in the remaining two tehsils, Shahdadpur and Tando Adam: from NA-181 in 1988 and NA-236 in 2008.
According to analysts, the PPP will retain its NA-236 seat in the upcoming elections. However, the situation in NA-235 may change, where PPP’s former information minister Shazia Atta Marri is all set to take on PML-F’s Pir Sadaruddin Shah Rashdi.
Observers say that it is likely to be an interesting match, as Marri is the daughter of PML-N’s late Atta Muhammad Marri, twice-elected MNA, while Rashdi is the son of the late Pir Pagaro.
Sources say that Marri has been campaigning daily. Conversely, Rashdi has only visited the area once since the electoral battle began.
“PPP has carried out development works in the area during the last five years,” said Marri. “The PML-F couldn’t do that in the four decades of their rule.”
Published in The Express Tribune, May 11th, 2013.
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