Bangladesh: persisting predicament

Bangladesh's political crisis deepens with President Shahabuddin under pressure, while Dr Yunus faces challenges.

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Three months after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power through a popular movement led by students, political predicament of Bangladesh is deepening. While Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is demanding immediate elections, President Mohammad Shahabuddin has also come under growing pressure, particularly from a powerful segment of students, to resign.

Elected by the Awami League-dominated parliament in 2023, Shahabuddin is not trusted by those who toppled Sheikh Hasina on August 6, 2024.

If President Shahabuddin is forced to resign, it would lead to a major political crisis and leave a constitutional vacuum because the parliament that is to elect president stands dissolved since August. Shafiqul Alam, press adviser to the interim government, says the "decision to replace the president will be based on political consensus".

Almost 100 days have passed since Nobel laureate Dr Mohammad Yunus assumed charge as Chief Adviser of the Interim Government and there is no indication for how long he will continue and when a general election will be held.

On the other hand, Bangladesh Constitutional Reform Commission is seriously trying to change what it calls a 'fascist' mode of governance in which Prime Minister was given enormous powers.

Dissatisfaction is growing with each passing day against the interim government which is being seen as only dealing with issues like the problems of garment factory workers, increase in gas tariff and general price hike rather than focusing on its mandated job of reforming the system.

The recent floods have also worsened the country's economic challenges, forcing the interim government to seek a bailout package from the IMF.

The interim government has not yet decided to seek Hasina's extradition from India while cases of corruption and extrajudicial killings have been registered against her.

The Awami League, meanwhile, is in tatters, with Hasina's son arguing that she is still the Prime Minister because she never resigned from her post and was forced to leave the country.

Will this power vacuum in Bangladesh deepen if President Shahabuddin is forced to resign and the interim government refuses to hold general election anytime soon? Three months have passed since Hasina's government was toppled and Bangladesh is being run on an ad hoc basis.

For how long will the military back the interim government? Will people not turn against Army Chief Gen Waker-uz-Zaman for his continued support to a regime which has serious legitimacy issues?

The interim government on its part first wants the election commission and other pillars of power like the judiciary, bureaucracy and police to be reformed, and a new voter list prepared. The government thus does not appear ready to hold election any time before 18 months.

Also, Dr Yunus is least mindful of the reality that his own holding of power lacks legitimacy as it is neither mandated under a public referendum or any Supreme Court ruling. With the euphoria of a 'second revolution' now dying down, people are questioning on what ground he is holding power. And the demand of the President Shahabuddin to resign tends to augment the prevailing crisis.

The legitimacy crisis involving the interim government is deepening with time and the support base for the Chief Adviser is shrinking. Bangladesh's political predicament needs to be examined from three sides.

First is the role of students and civil society in tolerating the illegitimate position of the interim government. If and when the prevailing economic and political crisis goes beyond control, the interim government will find it difficult to face a popular discontent.

Whether the government, in such an event, will use force to quell another popular uprising or try to find some solution to deal with its legitimacy predicament remains to be seen. So far a benign-looking Yunus has managed to deal with the prevailing situation, but there is no guarantee that he will be able to maintain control in the days to come. Awami League - even though on the back foot right now due to its leader being in exile and other party leaders either having left the country or languishing in jails or put on the exit control list - will not miss an opportunity to try and bounce back.

With the Yunus regime resorting to harsh measures against the opposition and failing to deal with the economic and governance issues, the outcome will be nothing else than the deepening of anger and frustration, especially among the youths.

Second is the role of India. So far the Modi government has not asked Hasina to leave India. It is certain that New Delhi will not let down its trusted allay even if Dhaka expresses anger. Not just that Bangladesh is financially dependent on India, but RAW as well as the local Hindu population have also penetrated far and wide into the state of Bangladesh and its society.

Over a period of 15 years, New Delhi has provided billions of dollars in aid to Bangladesh to improve infrastructure and strengthen the economy. New Delhi's proximity to Dhaka started in 1971 when it supported the liberation struggle in a big way.

Besides, its assistance to Bangladeshi youth for pursuing studies and patients seeking medical treatment cannot be ignored. India's leverage over Bangladesh in trade and power supply also matters when it comes to exerting pressure on Dhaka in not taking a hostile position.

And third, Bangladesh's predicament is also reflected in its present and future ties with Pakistan. Currently, the Yunus regime is pursuing a cautious approach while reciprocating to gestures from Islamabad.

Pakistan's High Commissioner to Dhaka has held several meetings with Chief Adviser Yunus on bettering the bilateral ties, but so far no substantial progress has been made in terms of easing visa restrictions from Bangladeshi side, launch of direct flights between Pakistan and Bangladesh or fostering trade, commercial, educational and cultural ties.

Hopefully, when the interim government is done with the legitimacy issue, it will be able to focus on other important matters like the holding of general election and institutional reforms.

In the meantime, the Yunus regime is trying to undo with the legacy of the Father of the Nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and Sheikh Hasina's rule. Having a good rapport with the West is a plus point for Dr Yunus but he needs to be mindful of the factors that can destabilise his regime.