Money was not a problem. Beg, borrow or steal, no questions were asked. This was the policy that helped Pakistan achieve the nuclear threshold. Something similar is, perhaps necessary to achieve energy security.
No short-term solution to the energy shortage is in sight. Our systems are too weak to manage transmission and distribution losses. Electricity theft is an issue too politically hazardous to confront. We don’t understand electricity conservation and oil is too costly to pay for, which has left the capacity of private power plants underutilised. Long-term solutions that are already in place, or are in the works, do not inspire any confidence that they will meet the projected demand — and the latter itself a grey area. The Bhasha dam has been made possible because of a politically voiceless Gilgit-Baltistan. No other mega hydel project could have had such a smooth ride. Small dams will continue to be topics for small talk. Controversies related to coal will never end. The capacity to import gas has been eroded by the slowdown of economic growth. At any rate, dependence on imports does not ensure energy security.
Countries always take a long term view of their energy security needs. There is currently a worldwide scramble to ensure energy security. The established, as well as the emerging powers, are investing to ensure that ready supplies are available to them in the future. China and Brazil are entering the solar field in a big way. Germany, not exactly a country where there is a lot of sun, is the largest producer of solar energy. Spain is about to overtake the US in thermal solar power generation.
We, in Pakistan, do not seem to have any plan to ensure our energy security unless a collection of contentious projects is thought to be the way to go about solving our problems. What is needed is a safe, secure and continuous source of energy located within the country. The only inexhaustible source we have is the sun. No upstream or downstream issues are involved here. There is no market in Pakistan for solar solutions right now, but the opportunities will know no bounds because this has the potential to become the cheapest alternative that can solve our energy problems.
Routine directives like the one recently issued by the minister for water and power to the stillborn Alternative Energy Development Board to add a thousand megawatts of clean and cheaper electricity to the national grid within a year, will not do. Nor is the hasty announcement of a policy for investment in solar power generation with an upfront tariff, the way to go about it. Subsidy on solar powered tube wells announced at the second energy summit is again a half measure.
The economy needs a radical breakthrough to join the high-growth league of countries, which can be provided by cheap energy and a niche in the export market. Solar power can help us achieve this aim. Currently, it is a negligible contributor to the global energy supply, though its contribution is projected to rise by 20 to 40 times by 2020. Its engineering, economics and policy still need innovation, research and development and we need to employ the same zeal and consensus that was demonstrated when we were trying to achieve the nuclear threshold.
A Solar 2020 Project should be established to: 1) achieve cost-effective solutions to meet our energy demand and 2) make Pakistan world’s largest exporter of solar energy solutions and equipment. A congregation of Pakistani experts, including expatriates, should brainstorm and draw up technical details, followed by a meeting of political and other stakeholders for an agreement to keep their mismanagement on hold until 2020. Parliament should then pass a law to give effect to the agreement. The law should cover an upfront allocation of a substantial sum of money for this project, as well as providing it with complete autonomy.
Let the sun shine on the economy of Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 13th, 2012.
COMMENTS (12)
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There is no doubt that Soler energy being among the cheapest source holds great future for energy hungary planet earth.It's clean and in abundance and free forever.Dr Tahir has done an excellent job by writing this article.If the matter is left to the govt to take the initiative it will take us no where.We know how the govt works.Private sector can achieve the anticipated result.Govt job in this scenario should be that of facilitator giving incentive to make the project attractive to investor.
@ author:--Looking at the odds and various options for power generation your proposal seems quite feasible.Solar power generation is not only climate friendly,it is much cheaper "in the long run" as compared to other forms Like coal and atomic power plants which have proved to be very dangerous in the recent past.I believe that 21st century belongs to solar energy as a source most suitable for the purpose.Only thing that worries me is how will someone harness the stallion of "corruption and indifference" when doing any thing constructive,for which our climate is very suitable to breed fast.Furthermore you do not need to be so optimistic as to start planning of exporting electricity,let us first meet our own demand which is increasing by leaps and bounds every day.Afterwards we can think of export options
@Can't ignore him!: "This should be a, sorry, this has to be a SAARC 2020 project. It better be! " Why so? And, why it better be? "Bhai-bhai"ism does not solve problems; it only creates unreasonable expectations only to be dashed later. Please explain in what way can SAARC help in this. Provide intellectual capital? Hardly. Provide funding? That is a laugh! I wish to introduce a bit of realism in suggesting solar energy as one of the ways of overcoming the energy crisis. Remember, solar energy is not just about how many sun-days in an year you enjoy. That sunlight may be free but there needs to be sophisticated technology to capture it and then process it before it can be put on the grid or used in another manner. All that technology makes use of rare-earths which are overwhelmingly to be found in China. Recently, US has accused China for pricing rare-earths unreasonably. Here is an opportunity for Pakistan to profit from its "deeper-higher" friend. Try it and see if you get anywhere. Come back and tell us how you fared.
@Adeel759: "I doubt that Elected Govt has the will, credibility, sincerity, determination and vision to carry out such projects."
You forgot to mention money. While solar energy has the POTENTIAL to be very cheap in the future, it is very expensive at this time.
Energy can neither be created nor be destroyed. The economics related to energy too can create or destroy a country. So, great economist like Amartya Sen or great scientist like Abdus Salam, will never say "we invest in bomb energy even if we have to eat grass", because they know eventually it will lead to that situation.
Narendra Modi is single handedly responsible for successfully implementing cutting edge solar solutions in Gujarat. His efforts along with Tamilnadu's contribution has made India feature in the list of sustainable energy producing countries. Climate change they say will affect south Asia very soon, starting with the sunDerbans in Bangladesh and India and the Himalayas. This should be a, sorry, this has to be a SAARC 2020 project. It better be! what say folks?
US gas prices have fallen below $2 per million BTU (approx 1000 cubic feet), about one-sixth of the price Pakistan has agreed to pay for Iranian gas. With over 50 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves in Sindh alone, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/04/pakistans-energy-security-via-shale-gas.html
Thank you Dr. Sahib. It is the people like you who show can foresee and make some honest suggestions Your concerns are genuine and hope they may read and start working on your suggestions. I am glad that there are people who look beyond simplistic solutions of Pakistan's ailment. Energy is and has been Pakistan's most important need. The policymaker, however , always kept it on the back burner and now when the country is showing its desperation, nothing has gone beyond traditional rhetoric.
This is all about misplaced incentives. An entire industry has developed on the back of power shortages. Generators, UPS suppliers, battery sellers etc. They will hope to perpetuate the status quo, and while people are outraged at paying higher electricity rates, the upper middle class that can afford generators and UPS's seem content to burn expensive petrol or diesel and add to the load on the national grid by charging there UPS's. What should be done is to nudge large corporate and residential consumers, mostly the rich to start retrofitting solar/microwind to there homes and offices and conduct energy audits to improve insulation in their homes. At the very least UPS's can be charged this way. Due to poor architecture and design our homes and offices leak energy like crazy. An entire industry of dish antenna providers developed in the 1990s, in the 2000s the cable tv providers laid down networks. The same is needed in alternative energy now. I would think that entrepreneurs would jump on the opportunity of offering energy audits and retro fitting homes. At the very least, people should be encouraged to paint there roofs and sun facing walls white. Every little helps.
Let me state in the beginning that it s ought to be the responsibility of elected govt to provide basic services, but because of prevailing insecurity in the country its hard for shaky political govts to fetch funds needed to execute mega projects. The only institution reliable to provide all kind of security to Fund Providers, unfortunately, happened to be Pakistan Army. Now, if pakistan Army can defy the whole world to make WMD, Harbor Terrorist and Allow sectarianism, why cant it take lead in doing something that will benefit people en masse. Pakistan Army, apart from being a professional Military (Of which we are proud of), it also is one of the largest business conglomerates in the country running from, NLC, Fauji (what not) to Gas stations. I suggest, military should spare few top Generals, who could run the Army Led energy sector. this way army would raise funds for itself, for the exchequer and provide cheaper power to the nation and gain the respect, trust and gratitude of its people which it desperately needs to boost it lost morale, and help country's economy grow. I doubt that Elected Govt has the will, credibility, sincerity, determination and vision to carry out such projects.
solar can be a good option given the geography of this region. India is already producing 400 MW Grid connected solar, and implementing another 700 MW in 2012. It plans to generate 20,000 MW by 2020 and Govt has allocated whooping $19 billion dollars for that. There are more than 200 domestic and international companies that are manufacturing solar products in India, doing cutting edge research and developing amazing products next door. Instead of the clever Chinese who cares nothing but profit and kills local industry by dumping junk we should ask Indian companies to invest in Pak through joint ventures. Cut defense funding and put money in these areas.
@Author : You say "Solar 2020 Project should be established to: 1) achieve cost-effective solutions to meet our energy demand and 2) make Pakistan world’s largest exporter of solar energy solutions and equipment"
I can understand 1) but the second goal has nothing to with energy independence but rather achieving trade balance. Also considering the lead that so many countries have in this technology which they have invested for over a decade, how do ou propose to overcome their technological lead and establish yourself as the largest exporter? Neither the intellectual capital (no. of Physics Ph.Ds from top universities) not the industrial infrastructure exists to achieve that. For a country that is nervous of competing just with India (not the whole world on relatively low tech roducts like car, how will yo become the leader in a cutting edge product like solar energy?