There are many conspiratorial views about what America’s next move will be –– whether it will quit, stay put, or begin a new war front. If it is to transfer responsibility to local partners and quit, the security debris of the war in Afghanistan, in particular, very much like the wreckage of the Iraq war, will hit us all in the face.
Had there been some regional understanding and efforts to stabilise Afghanistan during the civil war of 1992-2001, perhaps, the suffering of its people and Pakistan could have been averted. Once again, there is an opportunity to think and work collectively for peace and stability of Afghanistan and the security of Iran that is threatened by the Israeli belligerence.
It is imperative to think of the economic, security and political future of the extended South and Southwest Asian regions of Asia, if and when Israel or the US, together or separately, strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even with a remote and push-button strategy, they may not escape some of the adverse consequences of harming Iran in the way they wish to. But for the region, the security and political implications may be far more dangerous and long-lasting. Already, the mere talk of strikes on Iran has caused a spiral in the oil prices. The increasing cost of energy is worrisome for Pakistan and other Asian countries in times of economic downturn.
One of the more worrisome factors is the diplomatic position of Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil-producing countries in its circle of influence on Iran’s nuclear programme. They appear to be as opposed to Iran’s nuclear quest as Israel and the United States. These countries have regarded Iran since its Islamic revolution as a threat to the stability of their regimes. In wake of the Arab spring and the new Arab consciousness emerging against the old regime, Iran appears to present a ‘grave’ threat.
If Israel and America carry through with their threat of crippling Iran’s nuclear capacity, we may see new trends in violence. The way Arab countries and Iran are divided over unrest in Bahrain and Syria may show how the divide may be along sectarian lines. And then, Iran and its social forces in regional Islamic countries may pitch them against the US and its regional allies.
Nor will the US and its European allies benefit from such a conflict. The challenge before us is how to make the Americans realise that more war means more pain and suffering for all of us. There are diplomatic alternatives and peaceful solutions, but that may require patience, hard work and perseverance.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 19th, 2012.
COMMENTS (13)
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@Falcon: to Solomon2 "This means that if US intervenes militarily, it will bleed economically!" When you refer to "it", I presume you mean US. "It" is bleeding economically even now. So, perhaps a military response to Iran may mean more economic hemorrhage. But the crux is who is left standing at the end of the day? You certainly do not expect that to be Iran. For your information, it is quite likely that Ayatollahs, if they don't back down, will capitulate sooner than later. If Iran is suspended from the SWIFT system of international banking (seems more likely by the day unless it has already taken place), that will be a mortal blow to Iran's economy from which it cannot recover. In any case, it will perhaps be Israel that will be administering the coup de gras!
"“If Israel and America carry through with their threat of crippling Iran’s nuclear capacity, we may see new trends in violence.” Man's history can be calibrated by "new trends in violence". Yet, here we are. Mankind has not only survived but it has progressed beyond any expectations of a species of fragile beings! Muslim penchant for promising "unbearable consequences" every time they are terrified by the inevitable consequences of their foolish provocations has not cut before, nor shall it in this instance. The showtime is at hand unless Iran backs down!
This is all moot. The economic sanctions against Iran are beginning to bite - hard! The recent move by the Swift financial network to cut off transactions by Iranian banks is just the latest development. Last year, Iranian banks conducted $35 billion worth of transactions through Swift, so they can't just shrug this off. The Iranian ride is approaching its end. Hopefully, this will also mean the end of the odious regime in Tehran.
@Solomon2: For your first question related to violence, Iran's influence in the region (Middle East as well as South Asia) has grown over a period of time and it is of a kind where even if it is politically motivated, it looks like sectarian in its outlook. Therefore, if Iran is pushed against the wall (regardless of merits and de-merits of it), we will see ramifications in the form of growing sectarian violence and further de-stabilization of regional governments (specially in the Middle East) which is the global energy reservoir. This means that if US intervenes militarily, it will bleed economically!
if you take out oil from the equation...the world would be a better place...
"If Israel and America carry through with their threat of crippling Iran’s nuclear capacity, we may see new trends in violence."
I find nothing in this column to support this key statement, upon which the author's main argument hangs upon. For now, "diplomatic alternatives and peaceful solutions...that may require patience, hard work and perseverance" translates, in practice, to allowing the Iranian mullahs free reign to develop nuclear weapons. Does the author really think that the day Pakistan wakes up to discover a new nuclear-armed hegemonic competitor on its western border is the time for action, rather than before?
Look at the title, such a humble and down to earth request to the mighty America. I think we should ask for forgiveness from America if he get angry.
[Sarcasm]
Realistically. It's either happening or it's not and it's going to be something between Iran and Israel that instigates it. You can talk all you want about trying to convince the US and Israel though the US is capable of making its own decisions through their own discussion between themselves and people never expect other countries to be excited about any concept of war. Israel is... Israel. I support them having a place to live without being bothered but they do take the victim image to its limits so they're bound so use a combination of taking people for a guilt trip and stay more on the aggressive side because they still feel the need to prove it to everyone that they won't be victims or "disrespected" in all possible ways the concept can entail. You all leave out Iran in your considerations. You know the best way for it to not happen? Iran itself gives and puts the drama to rest if it's not guilty of anything. But, they're certainly not obligated to, just as the others aren't obligated to act any other way. Someone, in this case, Iran, being considered a danger, will receive stubborn aggressive behavior until it's known not to be a threat. If it continues to allow or even act as though they're a danger and it will come from one direction if not another. Therefor, it's Iran the peacemakers should be talking to if they're serious about a solution.
"The way Arab countries and Iran are divided over unrest in Bahrain and Syria may show how the divide may be along sectarian lines." Oh come on! you are not so naive? Its ECONOMIC interests, and NOT sectarian divide. Label does not change the contents of a bottle, does it?
Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and the middle eastern countries should do all that they can do avert this war. Otherwise, the debris spanning over decades will be too much of a pain to bear. Disengagement of US from the region after cold war shows that they lack the long-term foresight to understand the ramifications of their choices. Truly what US and Pakistan are paying in Afghanistan and domestically are the spill-over from the earlier covert collusion, whose end game was badly planned. Those who don't learn from history are destined to repeat it!
When you sit on the strategic intersection, expect something crazy happening all the time. Is this not true that all through the recorded history of India invaders came to loot, plunder, rob, kill, and rape mostly from the northwestern corridor. Only one came through the Arabian sea and again for strategic reasons and brought all those Syeds, Qureshis, and Shah Jees. The bad part is that we celebrate them as liberators instead of bringing up the facts. All were same wherever they came from. Sorry! I have no respect for those who robbed me off of my cuture.
Pakistan should take China, Iraq and Russia and if possible India on board to convince US to avoid war in the region. US may convince Israel if the regional players like Russia, China and Pakistan show absolute deterrence. Because it is Israel in haste otherwise US seems to be more interested in East Asia.