Don’t rule out an upset in the coalition today

PML-Q’s Mohsin Leghari is a lone ranger.

Throughout his tenure as a member of the opposition, he has been the mainstay of his party, challenging the treasury. Leghari decided to stand against the combined might of the PML-N, the PPP and his own party. His papers were rejected by the Election Commission but he was allowed to run on appeal. Today his name will be on the candidates’ roll – though against the wishes of his own party. He is prepared to lose the elections today but make a point.

There are eight candidates for seven general seats in the Punjab. Aitzaz Ahsan and Ishaq Dar have already been elected on seats reserved for technocrats and Nuzhat Sadiq (PML-N) and Khalida Mohsin (PPP) on seats reserved for women. Kamran Michael of the PML-N was elected senator on a seat reserved for minorities.

The PML-N and its allies, including Unification Bloc, have 223 votes while the PPP has 108 votes. The PML-N, therefore, can easily elect its four candidates: Zulfiqar Khosa, Zafrullah Dhandhla, Hamza and Rafiq Rajwana. PPP will also easily elect its two candidates, Aslam Gill and Babar Awan.

The real contest will therefore be between PML-Q’s Kamil Ali Agha and Mohsin Leghari. Even with the help of PPP, the PML-Q – that has 28 votes – cannot elect Agha. He will need some votes from the PML-N. However, if one is to believe political talk shows, there’s nothing but hostility between the PML-N and Agha.

Leghari might win if the PPP and PML-N decide to support him – and judging by Chaudhry Nisar’s comments on a talk show Thursday night it seems they have. Leghari already has the tacit support of Hamid Nasir Chattha and another two MPAs.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 2^nd, 2012.