Just so that we may place our ‘higher than the Himalayas’ relationship in perspective, I was also informed that there was a daily flight between Delhi and Beijing compared to only two a week between Islamabad and Beijing. The disparity in trade figures between Beijing and Delhi, and Beijing and Islamabad, respectively, are already well-known. Call it anything, size of the economies or economic pragmatism, or whatever, the fact is China and India are unlikely to go to war with a $100 billion stake, keeping the two tied in an interdependent embrace; wish what you may, Pakistan, bosom love ain’t coming to the rescue. That is the new world ‘geconomics’.
One thing that always strengthened my hand as an ambassador for Pakistan during the Shaukat Aziz years was the perpetual good news that came out on the economic front from Pakistan. Now there may be more than one opinion about Musharrafian economy, but I have always held, and with some conviction I might add, that economies work on few sound fundamentals and a lot of good sentiment. This last word is key. So if the services sector — telecom, construction, finance — all seemed to be galloping under Shaukat Aziz’s mantra of economic progress, he perhaps understood well the significance of looking dapper and sounding happy. He held the dollar pegged and the stock market boomed: the first was clever policy, the latter sentiment. After all what is in the story of an ‘Incredible’ India — the incredibility indeed of a well-manufactured fable and from there on the critical mass of success takes on. It was famously reported that a particular British chancellor of the Exchequer was singing in the bathroom: the veil of pessimism lifted and the economic sentiment began its own hum. But when you sit on a dredged economy and scooped-out resources there is little that you can offer to the world as hope. Words remain just that, words. Give Hafeez Shaikh something to hum about, and he will hum. The difficulty is he himself remains incapable of carving one.
I haven’t heard a sicker pronouncement of Pakistan’s economic predicament than someone quoting to me the likely $12-16 billion flowing in remittances, as the ultimate trigger for turning around our fortunes. There cannot be a darker indictment of our lows. Incapable of generating revenues inside, we hope like hell for the world and the people to resuscitate us from the outside. Even in that, though, madness must have a method. Investments, portfolio or otherwise, flow into congenial environs; some, Hafeez Shaikh will have to conjure, some we, as partners in crime, will have to relent and enable.
I am not an economist, and certainly never pretended to be one, but I have been subjected enough to the pains of a few that even I could venture to suggest a course to the hapless finance minister. For instance, capital flight is a growing reality and industry needs an injection of support and sustenance under a dwindling availability of energy. The approaching winter months may just provide some respite from domestic energy consumption, enabling diversion to the industry sector. Where possible, policy measures can enable relief and sectoral benefits to industries that wish to work through the difficult times. That might just sustain the benefits emerging from an export boost last year. Many have tended to qualify the boost in different ways and perhaps each has a point but then how long can you keep a merchant down; there is something called “recess fatigue”, and he must break from it to keep the wheels going. One hopes that a finance minister may recognise such trends and then have the wits to turn them into triggers of rebound. If not, paralysis may just be a more enveloping reality in Islamabad.
Agriculture is half policy, half divine. The policy side has seen some attention while divinity is mostly earned. Our erstwhile brothers in East Punjab seem to have hit a good combination and are worth a reflection. So if there is a formula for our finance gurus to follow in the short-term, it must reside around energy, industry and agriculture. Once out of the hole, we can then begin to embellish our societal existence.
What will bring back a smile on the finance minister’s face? An enabling environment? A country in war, and a 10-year-old war at that, cannot be given to economic congeniality. We need to wean this country away from war. Seriously taken, the All Parties Conference urgings to ‘give peace a chance’ is a worthy, if catchy slogan, and must find the necessary politico-military resolve. The difficulty in our prevailing discourse is that few are willing to find solace in a political effort alone. As the refrain is that military runs the policy, perhaps that is where one may head. So then, over to General Kayani.
With two years to go in his tenure, here are a few things that General Kayani must do: get us out of this war — the lesser the pain the better; shun militancy in all its manifestations — and here the word manifestation to my mind carries all its consequences; and cleanse the military system of this ill-advised and ill-conceived baggage of the yore. We need not depend on the augmenting effect of an irregular effort in enhancing our national agenda. For some time let us simply look inside and avoid external diversions. With General Kayani convinced of such disposition, no arm whatever can practice any part of our rather sad legacy in regional ambitions.
I do not know who killed Rabbani and why; I also don’t know if the Pakistani military alone supports the Haqqani network and to what extent, but I do know that defending accusations of Pakistani culpability is becoming a harder task. The time when any such insinuation will stick is when we will have hit rock bottom.
I wish we were out of this predicament. I wish to see my country relevant and respected; and, I wish to see a smile on a humming Hafeez Shaikh.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 10th, 2011.
COMMENTS (40)
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@palu: I wish you could have seen the 24x7 coverage of the ANNA fast which lasted for 12days a lot of it is there on youtube have a look.
@palu I have been more critical in Indian newspapers and portals than what here! We dont need listens on freedom of expression in country where minorities are brutalized using false blasphemy cases and often killed. It is exactly this attitude of denial, and worse, trying to compare with India and the consequent jingoism that discredits Pak even further! Pak has perpetually been with a begging bowl from the West and, of late, China, India, on the other hand, has its fair share of problems, economic and social, but we have little reason to compare with Pak. I do hope that you look at addressing the social and governance issues that are spiraling out of control. A repeat of 1971 will spell doom for Pak in the case of Balochistan while jihadi movements will isolate Pak, not only from the west but also from your dear friend, China, in due course. Poor revenues,high corruption and unsustainable defense budgets will deplete the reserves while denying essentials to those actually in need and sabotaging development programs and infrastructure like Power. Do hope that you have the maturity to learn form your own mistakes, if not from others!
@Mango Man I wonder if an Indian could write one such piece in their Press. And if an Indian Paper would carry such a self-critical article? Uuunnhuun. Never. This is despite a baleful of troubles within India, some as serious as in Pakistan and education purportedly far widely spread than what you assume for Pakistan. Pakistan today is ready to look at itself and correct under pressure of growing societal awareness. Not India, sadly. In 60 years this is for the first time that Pakistan is reeling under pressure and India just cannot let the chance go to claim moral highground on Pakistan's misfortune. That is another place to learn some from China.
In 21st century real power is strong economy. Military power will come later. China has not fought a single war in decades and still projecting power. China is not actively involved in any covert war too. Real war is now fought in economic front and beauty of this war is you fight it with cooperating with your perceived enemy. India considers china as her enemy no: 1 but look at the trade figures between them. $ 60 billion with short term target of $ 100 billion.
You have on;y succeded in fooling yourself. Pakistan had reached rock bottom under the last dictatorship and both Shaukat Aziz and Musharraf ran away after 9 years of failed policies. Where is Shaukat Aziz now? That should tell you a little about his character. Now how can any elected government undue 9 years of dictatorship in a few years and that too when it has to work within a system of democracy where compromises are the order of the day. Think about it, a dictator with absolute power was unable to do if a fraction of the things an elected government did like renaming KPK, constitutional ammendements etc. That should explain to you why an elected government no matter how slow and inefficient is better than dictatorship.
After reading thishttp://tribune.com.pk/story/269918/dress-modestly-masked-men-enter-girls-school-thrash-students/ i think we all know the way things are headed
One of the best analyses an officer of the forces can offer.Pakistan has really become a failed state.It's economy has hit the rock bottom and the governance of the state is in shambles.Our politicians are limping both ways and are disparately clinging to a sinking ship.The Army,instead of adhering to it's basic objectives has become an instrument of political manipulation.Our country,despite our weak economy has chosen a course of international confrontations.Our Military leaderships,playing into the hands of religious zealots have knowingly or unknowingly chosen a very dangerous course.There are more wealthy and powerful Muslim countries than Pakistan but our leadership has decided to fight all non Muslims on our own.We have invited Chechens,Uzbecs and Arabs to fight their wars on our soil.We fought a war against Russians on very flimsy ground.On American and Arabs prodding we destroyed Afghanistan and killed more than three millions people.That war is still raging and we are yet to decide our course.Ch.Shahzad's article,a master piece on military strategy,should be thoroughly discussed and acted upon.Any more delay will tear apart our already besieged nation.Let us for once we decide that we can't dictate to the whole world.
@chinkkufmysis:
You are standing upto your eyes in the smelly stuff!
Pakistan can only survive through nuclear blackmail after 2014, when the US aid dries up. Mark my words.
@Cynical: In Pakistan humans can't be optimists, as they are living in years and not in eons.
what makes me feel too sad is, we can't even rise as we fall......
Putting the article in perspective. Isolation: Even the so called all weather friend doesn't trust us. Economy: Stop choking the books and buildthe economy on sound fundamentals of econ. War: End the war. Though its no more so easy, Marshal. Gen. Kayani: He needs to intervene to stabilize the country from all aspects. Cleansing: Wow, Marshal demands giving up the flawed policiesof upon which the establishment had been hedging....... Now, blanket wouldn't leave you
Getting out of the war is a necessary but not sufficient condition for bouncing off of rock bottom. After this step, many more reforms need to be carried out such as: disband all militias, establish rule of law ("murder is a murder is a murder"), provide education, healthcare and welfare to the population, tax the rich and for once collect the taxes, cut spending (especially military spending), transfer foreign policy control to civilians, etc. 5 years after these reforms, investment money will start flowing in.
Incredible India was a campaign for tourism, not the economy in general. Also, like all false advertisements, even a well-crafted fable cannot guarantee return business if not matched by a substantial amount of truth. So, for revival, it is better to look at the truth rather than singing false ditties. Truth helps identify fundamental problems, which can be solved dispassionately, instead of being drowned in a cheerful melody. Satyameva jayate, nanrutam. (Truth wins, not falsehood)
No Pakistan has not hit rock bottom. But, if things continue like this it will. One thing is for sure. It is certainly stuck in a vicious cycle of violence and Terror.
A very good article in which the author has done full justice by speaking the plain truth and expressing genuine apprehensions about the country's economy and handling of the present precarious situation by establishments in Pakistan. I feel that the bottom is yet be reached since digging by some state establishments is still being continued as matter of routine but as the former ambassador to US has put it quite diplomatically ' Shun militancy in all its manifistation' would be the right approach and the same if practiced would bring great dividends to the country.
@Kamal Yaar:
What a brilliant observation!
There is a way out from this state of pessimism. Lets keep religion as a personal thing- strictly within the four walls of our house. Lets also concentrate on the following sectors: Education, Health, Human welfare and Equitable distribution of nations' wealth and finally a healing touch to our poor and destitute. Lets try to compete with our neighbours in trade, commerce , art, culture & sports etc. and not in military hardware and age old hatred which is fruitless to the masses.
What is good about India, one can read in any newspaper published anywhere outside Pakistan. What is bad about Pakistan, one can read in any newspaper published anywhere outside Pakistan. What is good about Pakistan, one can read daily in any newspaper published in Pakistan. And, what is bad about India,one can read daily in any newspaper published in Pakistan.
Not yet, still plots in defence are selling like hot cakes, many times more than original prices. We will hit the rock bottom when prices of those plots hit rock bottom.
P.S: I wish to see Gabbar Singh ousted from the Punjab law ministry.
No. The 'pure' manage to reach a new low every time the world thinks there is only one way left to go for the godly and that is up. So wait patiently as only God knows when the bottom of the abyss will be reached.
Not only we have hit rock bottom, we are digging even deeper
Dear sir, China and Pakistan have a true friendship, unlike our friendship with back-stabbing USA and west. China has stood right behind us whenever the entire world has snubbed us. Chinese know a true friend and know the importance of our strategic location in the world. Whenever, you meet a chinese immigration officer at airport in china and once they know that you are from pakistan, you can see love and friendship in their eyes, they apologized for delay and told me that he wanted to make sure my baggage re-packed properly, hence the delay. Please, do not have doubt on the wise and true chinese friendship.
Is Kayani capable of taking advice? His actions over a period of time indicate that whatever he listens to goes in through one ear and out of the other!
Your reference to Shaukat Aziz's euphoria re Pakistan's economic successes is quite interesting. He is known to be a wealthy man. How much of his personal wealth did he invest in Pakistan? He chose not to vote for Pakistan with his wallet but, instead, ran away.
@Truth Seeker
I admire your sense of humour. But stay optimist, 'cause we might one day reach it considering how hard we are trying.
We are good at demanding from the world all kinds of aid without feeling any embarassment. In fact, we feel entitled to it. China, just gave us $5M in cash. USA promised us $7.1B last year. One is our higher / deeper friend and the other our enemy!
Most investors want a safe/stable environment with a level playing field and returns that are commensurate with the risks. Pakistan has a weak central govt which has ceded control of much of the country to militants and violence/murder are regular events even in Karachi which is the financial capital - it has a notorious reputation for corruption which negates the concept of "level playing field" - and has xenophobic tendencies which makes any minority an easy target. In short - Pakistan is currently not a suitable country for most international investors.
The whole article can be summed up by the famous advice James Cavelle (Carville gained national attention for his work as the lead strategist of the successful presidential campaign of then-Arkansa governor Bill Clinton ) gave to Governor Bill Clinton “It’s the economy, stupid”. Bill Clinton followed this advice to heart and the average American did very well under his 8 years term. May be some one should give the same advice to APC.
We are the bench mark for rock bottom, but as they say the good thing about being rock bottom is that you can only go up from there!
In a bottomless pit one can't hit the bottom.
Who will invest in a country where people paralyze the city to demand the release of a murderer Qadri, where sectarian terrorist Molana Ishaq is taken from the jail to the GHQ in an army helicopter, where Hakeemullah Mehsood is termed pushtoon nationalist and Ajmal Pahari a mohajir nationalist.