Analysis: Trump's Iran dilemma deepens as war drags on with no clear exit

Six months into the conflict with Iran, US President Donald Trump is facing increasingly difficult choices as he seeks to end a war he once predicted would last only weeks.

The latest round of diplomatic efforts and military threats has highlighted Trump's dilemma: accept an emerging interim agreement between Iran and Oman that could give Tehran unprecedented oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate military action at the risk of prolonging the conflict and increasing political costs ahead of November's US midterm elections.

Analysts say the proposed Iran-Oman arrangement would represent Tehran's biggest concession since US and Israeli strikes began on Feb. 28, while also granting Iran a role in supervising the strategic oil-shipping route that Washington had pledged to keep free from Iranian control.

Alternatively, Trump could order another round of airstrikes, but analysts warn such a move may carry significant political risks without achieving the administration's objectives.

A third option would be to maintain the current strategy of enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports while responding selectively to attacks on shipping. However, analysts say this approach also offers no clear path to ending a conflict Trump had expected to conclude by mid-April.

"It's a menu of bad options," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator under Democratic and Republican administrations. "Something has to give."

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said any temporary shipping arrangements would allow vessels to pass without restrictions and without any party exercising control over transit.

Strait of Hormuz at the centre of dispute

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted the Strait of Hormuz must remain an open international waterway, free from Iranian control or transit fees.

Read More: Iran threatens to 'black out' Gulf if power plants hit by US

However, analysts say Trump has previously diverged from his administration's stated positions and could do so again.

With US gasoline prices remaining elevated, approval ratings under pressure and the war proving unpopular with many Americans, Trump's political room for manoeuvre is narrowing.

Analysts say Iran has shown little sign of yielding despite months of military pressure, increasing the possibility that Washington may ultimately have to make the larger concessions.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is widely viewed as essential for restarting US-Iran negotiations on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The proposed Iran-Oman framework would reportedly give Tehran some oversight of vessels entering the Gulf through the strait, according to Iranian and regional officials familiar with the negotiations. Trump has said an agreement is close, though Iranian officials say key issues remain unresolved.

Even if negotiations resume, analysts remain sceptical that they will produce a lasting settlement. A memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran in June quickly collapsed despite providing Iran with limited sanctions relief, drawing criticism from some Republicans.

Also Read: Tell Trump to desist or we hit you hard: Iran warns Gulf states

White House officials have increasingly acknowledged that the conflict could continue into the midterm election period, when early voting begins in some states as early as September.

That could complicate Trump's political position after campaigning on promises to avoid prolonged foreign conflicts and focus on domestic economic issues.

A US official said Trump's Iran policy is not driven by opinion polls.

War objectives remain elusive

Although Trump has repeatedly declared success in weakening Iran's military leadership and capabilities, analysts say many of his broader strategic objectives remain unfulfilled.

Trump said on Saturday he cancelled plans for a new wave of large-scale attacks after regional partners urged him to give diplomacy another chance, while warning that military action remained an option if negotiations failed.

Some analysts suggested the decision may also have reflected concerns over US missile stockpiles, although Trump has denied any shortage of munitions.

On Wednesday, Trump again mixed conciliatory and confrontational messages.

"I'd rather make a deal because I don't want to kill people," he told a rally in Las Vegas. "But at some point we're gonna."

Iran has warned Gulf states that any renewed US strikes would trigger retaliation against regional energy infrastructure, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

Analysts also say US rivals, including China, Russia and North Korea, are closely watching how Washington manages the conflict.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former US intelligence official for the Middle East, said the crisis was shaping global perceptions of American military and political limits.

Even some analysts generally supportive of Trump's approach have urged caution, arguing that Washington should avoid rushing into decisions and instead focus on where it retains leverage.