UN urges the world to ready for extreme heat risk from El Nino

Hot weather hurts Asian crops as powerful El Nino takes shape

The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly a strong El Nino that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, ​which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according ​to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino will continue until November.

It also said it remained uncertain how strong El Nino will be as models differ on its severity, but officials warned of the need to be ready.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

More droughts, hurricanes and heat?

The weather pattern is ​known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing ​rainfall ⁠to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

El Nino can also cause drought ⁠in ​Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South ​Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, the ​WMO said.

The last El Nino, which meteorologists said was strong, in 2023 to 2024 contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.

Saulo said other risks associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.

El Niño has officially returned and could be severe. The UN is warning the world to prepare.

The Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures “nearly everywhere” and fuel more extreme weather, according to @WMO.

Here are 5️⃣ facts you need to know⤵️ pic.twitter.com/XRDMx0qJR9

— United Nations Geneva (@UNGeneva) June 4, 2026

“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.

For consumers, facing inflation because of the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Nino.

Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world's biggest cocoa processors, warned crops in the growing regions of Ecuador and West Africa that account for 60% of global output could be reduced.

"This is something that we are very cautiously observing," he told media on a call on Tuesday. "El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousand per ton".

London cocoa futures LCCc2 are trading at £2,944 ($3,964.10) per metric ton, down from more than 9,000 in April 2024.

Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade.

The WMO is more circumspect but said it had observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it was a reminder of the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.

“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.

Hot weather hurts Asian crops

Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world's most populous region, and an expected severe El Nino weather pattern could inflict more damage.

From India's grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia's eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand's rice fields to Indonesia's vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said.

El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war.

Wheat prices Wv1 have risen about 20% since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key US growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15% over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.

Read: El Nino alert: summer turns fierce

One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse.

"The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America," said Chris Hyde, a US-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi. Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company's high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia.

Hot-dry weather hits farms

In India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70% of annual rains.

"With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavourable for the timely sowing of summer crops," said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

"Planting is likely to be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but greater concern lies in the possibility of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells after its arrival."

India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn in the summer season.

For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas.

"Everybody is worried (about drought), it's risky," said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer in central Thailand's Chainat province.

"For my second harvest, I have to wait and see the situation. It's a risk for everyone (if there is not enough water), there will only be one harvest".

Thailand and the Philippines plant ​their main rice crops in June-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.

Indonesia's most populated Java island and some areas in northern Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not experienced any rain for more than 10 days, according to the country's meteorological agency, with medium to low rainfall expected in June.

Higher prices

Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40% of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests. RIC/AS

"There is clear indication of crisis as rice prices have moved substantially higher without any major shortage," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, adding Thai rice prices have climbed around 15% in the past month.

"India has a huge rice stockpile, several times more than what it needs. But the thinking is that very soon India will start looking at these stocks as a critical asset and may introduce some sort of export curbs if we see problems with the early part of the monsoon".

However, KKP Research, a unit of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Thailand, said some of the impact of the dryness could be cushioned by strong reservoir levels.

"What we are more concerned about is fertiliser supply," the bank said in a note to Reuters. "We estimate that a fertiliser shortage, if it occurs, could reduce rice production by up to 15-20% in the worst case".

Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Nino in the coming months that could hit yields.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months.

John Lowe, a farmer near Burcher in central New South Wales, said his total cropping area is still around 30% smaller than it could have been.

El Nino is likely to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rains to the Americas.

"Statistically speaking, there is not much correlation with weather in the US and El Nino, during the summer," said Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc.

"In a lot of years, we can come up with a little bit more moisture in an El Nino summer. But that does not really mean above-normal rainfall".