El Nino alert: summer turns fierce

KARACHI:

Strong indications suggest the El Nino phenomenon may develop in May, raising concerns over intensified heat and shifting weather patterns across Pakistan.

El Nino is a climatic phase in the Pacific Ocean marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures, while its counterpart, La Nina, brings cooler-than-average waters. Together, they form the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, a key driver of global weather patterns.

According to meteorological projections, the activation of El Nino could lead to higher temperatures, reduced wind speeds, and below-average rainfall in Pakistan. In extreme cases, this may also trigger drought-like conditions in certain regions.

The Pakistan Meteorolo-gical Department (PMD) has issued a heatwave alert, warning that southern parts of the country could experience a low-intensity heatwave between April 29 and May 3. During this period, temperatures may soar to as high as 52°C in some areas.

The alert further notes that both ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently in a neutral state. However, most global climate models indicate a 61% probability of El Nino developing between May and July.

Authorities have assured that the evolving situation is being closely monitored. In case of a severe heatwave threat, timely warnings will be issued.

While southern regions brace for rising temperatures, upper parts of the country are expected to receive relief due to two successive western weather systems. The first system is likely to affect northern areas from the night of April 27 through April 29, followed by another from May 3 to May 5. These systems could bring a two to four degrees Celsius drop in temperatures in affected regions.

Historical climate data shows that May and June are typically the hottest months of the year in Pakistan. Areas most vulnerable to extreme heat include southern Punjab, upper Sindh, and southeastern Balochistan, where average temperatures range between 43°C and 45°C. Observational data suggests that temperatures in these regions are already running 2-4°C above normal.

Explaining the science behind the phenomenon, PMD spokesperson and Deputy Director Anjum Nazir Zaigham stated that El Nino and La Nina are two phases of the same climatic system. During El Nino, waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual, directly influencing weather conditions in Pakistan. This can result in prolonged heat spells, weaker winds, reduced rainfall, and even drought in some areas. In contrast, La Nina brings cooler ocean temperatures, often leading to stronger winds, increased rainfall, and cooler conditions across Pakistan and other parts of South Asia.

Citing data from the World Meteorological Organisation, Zaigham added that current sea surface temperatures are already 0.5°C above normal. If this anomaly reaches 0.8°C, the likelihood of El Nino forming in May rises sharply to 61%.

With climate signals aligning and temperatures already trending above average, Pakistan may be heading into a summer where the heat does not just arrive-it tightens its grip.