Weekly inflation rate stands above 14%

Pakistan's weekly inflation rose 14.47% year-on-year for the period ended May 21, 2026, as spillover effects from the US-Israel conflict with Iran continued to drive up fuel, energy and transport-linked costs across the economy, disproportionately squeezing household budgets despite a marginal weekly decline in prices.

Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed that the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI)-based inflation eased 0.33% week-on-week mainly due to lower chicken, electricity and petroleum prices, but annual inflation remained elevated because of sharp increases in petrol, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), wheat flour and utility charges.

The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears of disruption in oil supply routes following the escalation of military conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran, have kept global crude oil markets volatile in recent weeks. Pakistan, being a net energy importer, has faced direct transmission of higher fuel and transport costs into domestic inflation.

According to PBS data, petrol prices surged 62.24% year-on-year while diesel increased 60.90%. LPG prices jumped 50.73% and electricity charges rose 43.30% compared to the same week of last year. Wheat flour prices climbed 59.45%, reflecting the cascading effect of higher transport and production costs.

Among food items, onions recorded a massive 68.33% annual increase, while tomatoes rose 34.58%. Meat prices also remained elevated, with mutton up 15.86% and beef 12.92% year-on-year.

The inflationary burden varied across income groups, highlighting the widening pressure on household consumption patterns. The lowest consumption quintile, representing households earning up to Rs17,732 per month, recorded an 11.79% annual increase in SPI.

However, middle-income groups faced even sharper pressures, with the second quintile experiencing 14.32% inflation. The highest expenditure group saw inflation at 14.17%, while the combined national reading stood at 14.47%.

Economists said lower-income households remained vulnerable because a larger share of their income is spent on food and utilities, sectors that were witnessing persistent price shocks. Meanwhile, middle- and upper-income consumers are increasingly feeling the impact through higher transport, fuel and energy expenses linked to the global oil market instability.

The monthly inflation reading recorded by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.9% year-on-year in April 2026 as compared to a rise of 7.3% in the previous month and 0.3% in April 2025. Month-on-month, the CPI increased 2.5% in April 2026 against an increase of 1.2% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.8% in April 2025.