Climate vulnerability

Pakistan's climate crisis is no longer a distant environmental concern waiting on the horizon. It is a present economic emergency steadily tightening its grip on national development. A sobering assessment in the latest SBP half-yearly report has once again underlined what scientists, economists and policymakers have been warning for years. Pakistan is paying a disproportionately high price for a global problem it did little to create.

According to the SBP's findings, climatic disasters in Pakistan between 2000 and 2024 exceeded both global and regional averages, a troubling continuation of trends visible in the preceding two decades as well. Pakistan now stands among the countries most vulnerable to climate shocks. The injustice is that nations that built prosperity on carbon-intensive development continue to account for the overwhelming majority of emissions, while countries like Pakistan absorb the consequences through floods, droughts, heatwaves and collapsing livelihoods. The challenge confronting Pakistan strikes at the heart of economic survival. The country must grow its economy and lift millions out of poverty while simultaneously reducing emission intensity. Economic expansion built on conventional energy pathways risks worsening Pakistan's carbon footprint, yet abandoning growth is not an option for a country grappling with demographic pressures and structural economic weaknesses. Long-term projection estimates cited from the World Bank suggest Pakistan's GDP could shrink by 4.5-6.5% by 2050 even under relatively optimistic climate scenarios.

Agriculture and industry - two pillars of Pakistan's economy - remain especially exposed. Without meaningful intervention, output from these sectors could decline by as much as 17% by mid-century. The warning signs continue to accumulate. Yet vulnerability cannot become an excuse for inertia. Pakistan's own emissions profile demands introspection. Climate resilience must become central to economic planning rather than remaining confined to environmental policy documents.