Return of the rising curve
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI), published annually by the Institute for Economics & Peace, has over time established itself as one of the most widely referenced composite measures of terrorism worldwide. It does not simply count incidents; it synthesises multiple indicators—number of attacks, fatalities, injuries, and hostage-taking—into a single score that reflects both the scale and the impact of terrorism within a country. By aggregating longitudinal data and applying a weighted methodology, the GTI offers a structured way of understanding not just where terrorism occurs, but how it evolves, concentrates, and transforms across different contexts.
The Index is not designed to capture intent, ideology, or political narratives. It is an impact-based instrument. Its rankings, therefore, should be read less as judgments and more as analytical markers indicating where the cumulative effects of terrorism are most pronounced at a given point in time. It is within this framework that Pakistan’s position at number one in the Global Terrorism Index 2026 must be understood.
For the first time since the Index’s inception, Pakistan records the highest global score—8.574—placing it as the most terrorism-impacted country in the world. This position follows a gradual upward movement in recent years, with Pakistan ranked second in 2024 and showing a consistent presence among the top 10 countries since the Index began. The current ranking is therefore not an isolated outcome; it reflects a trajectory that has been building over time.
The underlying data provides important context. In 2025, Pakistan recorded 1,139 deaths linked to terrorism, representing an increase of approximately six percent from the previous year. The total number of incidents stood at 1,045, slightly lower than the 1,098 recorded in 2024. At the same time, hostage-taking rose sharply to 655 cases, compared to just 101 in the previous year. This divergence between incident frequency and outcome severity is one of the most analytically significant features of the current dataset.
A purely quantitative reading might suggest relative stability in the number of attacks. However, a closer examination reveals that attacks are becoming more lethal and more strategically structured. The increase in fatalities, coupled with the dramatic rise in hostage-taking, indicates a shift toward operations that are designed to maximise impact rather than volume. This reflects a broader pattern in contemporary terrorism, where the effectiveness of an attack is increasingly measured by its strategic consequences rather than its numerical frequency.
Pakistan’s trajectory within the GTI reinforces this interpretation. Historically, the country experienced a period of intense violence between 2007 and 2013, during which it consistently ranked among the most affected globally. This was followed by a notable decline between 2014 and 2019, driven by sustained counterterrorism operations and institutional coordination. However, the period since 2020 shows a reversal of that trend. By 2025, Pakistan was experiencing six times as many terrorist incidents as it did in 2020, and deaths had reached their highest level since 2013.
Over a longer time horizon, the cumulative impact is equally instructive. Since 2007, Pakistan has recorded 17,668 deaths from terrorism, with the most recent years showing a consistent upward trend following the earlier decline. This pattern suggests that while reductions in violence have been achieved in the past, maintaining those reductions within a changing operational and regional environment remains a complex challenge.
The geographic distribution of terrorism within Pakistan adds another layer of analytical clarity. Violence is highly concentrated in the western border provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which together account for over 74 percent of attacks and approximately 67 percent of deaths. These figures point to a structurally defined pattern rather than a diffuse national spread. The concentration aligns closely with the Pakistan– Afghanistan border, a region characterised by difficult terrain, porous crossings, and Afghanistan now known to be a sanctuary for terrorist groups operating against Pakistan.
The GTI’s broader analysis of borderlands further reinforces this point. Globally, 41 percent of terrorist attacks occur within 50 km of an international border, and 64 percent within 100 km. The Pakistan–Afghanistan frontier exemplifies this dynamic, functioning as a space where terrorist groups are able to exploit both geography and political complexity to maintain operational mobility.
Within this environment, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerges as the dominant actor. The group is responsible for 56 percent of all terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan in 2025, making it the single most significant contributor to the country’s GTI score. The TTP carried out 595 attacks in 2025, resulting in 637 deaths—the highest level of activity attributed to the group in over a decade.
Equally important is the nature of these operations. Armed attacks account for approximately 50 percent of TTP activity, followed by bombings at 32 percent, with smaller but notable proportions involving assassinations and hostage-taking. The group has also introduced new tactics, including the use of drone technology for targeted attacks, indicating an evolution in tactics, though not necessarily in capability. At the same time, its targeting patterns have shifted. Security forces—both military and police—now represent the primary targets, accounting for a substantial proportion of fatalities. This reflects a strategic focus on institutional disruption rather than indiscriminate violence.
Parallel to the TTP’s dominance is the role of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which, while less active in terms of frequency, has demonstrated the capacity for high-impact operations. The Jaffar Express incident, involving the seizure of a passenger train and the taking of 442 hostages, stands as one of the most significant terrorist events in Pakistan in recent years. The BLA’s focus on infrastructure, particularly projects linked to international investment, introduces an additional dimension to the threat environment, connecting internal security dynamics with broader economic and geopolitical considerations.
The regional context, particularly developments in Afghanistan, is central to understanding these patterns. The return of the Taliban to power in 2021 has been identified as a key structural driver of increased militant activity in Pakistan. The shift in governance has altered the operational landscape, providing militant groups with expanded space and facilitating cross-border movement. Efforts at diplomatic engagement have not yet produced a stable framework for cooperation, and tensions between the two countries continue to shape the security environment.
At the same time, developments along Pakistan’s eastern border have added further complexity. The escalation of tensions with India in 2025 has created a multi-layered security context in which resources and strategic focus must be distributed across multiple fronts. This convergence of internal and external pressures underscores the interconnected nature of Pakistan’s current security challenges.
Pakistan’s response to these dynamics has included sustained military operations, border management initiatives, and national-level counterterrorism strategies such as Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. These measures reflect a continued commitment to addressing immediate threats. The GTI assessment notes that they have had an impact, but more needs to be done. This observation points not to a lack of effort, but to the broader scope of factors that influence terrorism outcomes.
The index identifies several structural drivers globally which shape the environment in which terrorist groups operate, influencing both their capacity and their resilience. These include governance limitations in peripheral regions, economic variability, political continuity, and the condition of regional relationships. However, it is equally important to recognise the methodological boundaries of the Global Terrorism Index itself. As an impact-based tool, the GTI does not make value judgments or attribute causation in explicit political terms. It measures outcomes rather than assigning responsibility. Within this framework, one of the most prominent contextual factors—namely the availability of cross-border terrorist sanctuary in Afghanistan—does not appear as a quantified variable in the Index, yet its influence is difficult to overlook when examining the data in totality.
Since 2021, following the change in governance in Afghanistan, there has been a marked expansion in the operational space available to groups such as the TTP. The GTI itself notes that the Taliban’s return to power provided terrorist groups with safe haven, resources, and enhanced operational reach, contributing to the observed increase in cross-border activity and the resurgence of attacks within Pakistan. While the index does not explicitly characterise Afghanistan as a terrorist sanctuary—consistent with its analytical design—the correlation between these developments and the subsequent escalation in terrorist activity is clearly evidenced in the data trends, including the sixfold rise in incidents since 2020 and the sustained increase in fatalities.
This dynamic has also contributed to a visible escalation in tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly on the question of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns regarding the presence of TTP elements operating from Afghan territory, while the Afghan authorities have publicly rejected these assertions. The GTI documents this pattern of accusation and denial, alongside the failure of multiple rounds of engagement aimed at resolving the issue. The result has been a progressively strained bilateral relationship, with cross-border incidents, security responses, and diplomatic friction reinforcing each other. In analytical terms, this represents not only a security challenge but a regional coordination deficit where the absence of a shared framework for managing terrorist movement continues to shape the operating environment in which these groups sustain and expand their activities.
In interpreting Pakistan’s position on the Global Terrorism Index, it is, therefore, important to maintain analytical precision. The ranking reflects a specific configuration of variables at a particular point in time. It does not define permanence, nor does it negate the progress achieved in earlier periods. Rather, it highlights the evolving nature of the challenge and the need for responses that are aligned with that evolution.
Pakistan’s experience over the past decade demonstrates that reductions in terrorism are achievable through coordinated and sustained effort. The current phase suggests that maintaining those reductions requires an equally sustained alignment of strategies—operational, institutional, economic, and diplomatic. The GTI, in this sense, serves not only as a measure of impact, but as a framework for understanding the conditions under which that impact can be reduced.
Ultimately, the significance of the Global Terrorism Index lies in its ability to translate complex patterns into a form that can inform policy and analysis. Pakistan’s position within that Index is a reflection of both challenge and capacity. It is an indication of where pressures have converged, but also of where responses can be refined. The trajectory it captures is not fixed. It remains, as it has always been, subject to the decisions and dynamics that shape the broader security environment.
The writer is a security analyst. His LinkedIn handle is Manzar Zaidi, Ph.D
All facts and information is the sole responsibility of the writer