Succession and war spiral

Syed Mojtaba Hussain Khamenei's succession has apparently sealed the fate of regime change possibilities, as Iran vowed to fight a war of attrition. This is, perhaps, the first war-time change of leadership at the pinnacle of the Islamic Republic. The overwhelming congregation of people in Tehran, Mashhad and other cities owing allegiance to the new supreme leader, and the military hierarchy standing firm behind Khamenei has sent shivers down the spine in Tel Aviv and Washington.

Moreover, the firm support that Mojtaba has drawn from Russia is a game-changer. President Vladimir Putin minced no words in saying that the Kremlin will back Tehran as he called on Khamenei to "continue his father's work with honour and unite the Iranian people in the face of severe trials". This gesture is in need of being read with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov remarks, wherein he told the Gulf states diplomats that Moscow has a defence understanding with Tehran, and went on to call for an end to "all attacks on both Iran and Gulf countries" while underscoring diplomacy as the way to ensure long-term regional security.

The war, nonetheless, in its second week has pushed Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE on the edge, as salvos of drones and missiles were seen landing on civil and military installations. Saudi Arabia too was contemplating a way out of the mess, as it went on to invoke its mutual defence pact with Pakistan. Likewise, Iranian missiles conveniently hitting Israeli cities coupled with the carpet bombing of Tehran simply makes it clear that the conflict is escalating.

China and Europe see it as a long-drawn battle with oil prices crossing the threshold of $100 a barrel. Iran's warning that it would target oil sites in the Gulf, if its refineries were attacked has flagged energy security concerns. Likewise, the testimony from Iran's foreign ministry blaming the European states for being a "partner in crime" with Israel and the US has pushed mediation efforts off the table. That has set the ball rolling as fears of a global conflagration hit sky high.