Super flu: next pandemic?

For one hundred years, public health professionals had been working to prepare the world for the next pandemic. They were worried about flu viruses as they have the potential to start a new pandemic. The earlier major global pandemic of 1918 which killed tens of millions of people is believed to be due to a flu virus. That was the reason that sophisticated laboratories around the world were established to track influenza viruses which then could help in producing effective vaccines.

The problem with flu viruses is that they are not a one type of virus and they change rapidly to undermine our defences. This year influenza A H3N2 is a predominant strain. That means in many areas it is being found in 80-90% of influenza cases. Influenza A H3N2 is not a new virus but it's more virulent or deadly than other Influenza A viruses. In 2022-2023 when H3N2 was dominant flu strain in the UK, it killed around 16,000 people compared to 8,000 deaths in previous flu seasons. But this year, H3N2 has made some significant changes (mutations) getting the ability to bypass our past immunity to H3N2. Changes are significant enough to classify it as subclade K.

The second problem is that this year flu season has started early. Normally we see the peak in January but this year in December, some places like the UK are seeing major increases in hospital admissions due to flu. That could be due to its evasion of past immunity and climate change. These viruses spread more easily in dry and cold season. Any humidity will make it unstable. The demand for hospital beds is so high that some hospitals are reaching close to their capacity and that is why it is being called super flu as it's making lot more people sick earlier than expected.

Flu viruses could be deadly for old, children and people with weak immune systems. It is difficult to protect yourself if flu is spreading around you but if you start using early COVID era preventive measures it will help you. Ventilation of your offices, rooms and factories will help limit the flu transmission. Frequent hand washes will help you too. Anyone above 65 years is encouraged to get Flu vaccine.

Flu vaccine is not a new vaccine, it has been used for ages but it's updated every year based on the viruses which were in circulation in past year. Though it does not cover Subclade K, it does cover H3N2. It is still expected to provide protection from severe disease and hospitalisation.

Once you get the flu then stay home if possible. If not then wear masks to protect others. Take paracetamol for fever and fluids and rest. Yakhni and soups will help you ease your symptoms. Use steam inhalation for congestion.

Could this super flu cause the next pandemic? Even though current strain has mutated to bypass our past immunity and is responsible for early and a big flu season, I doubt it has the potential to cause the same mayhem caused by SARS-COV-2 – the virus which caused COVID-19. One major difference is that our bodies have past experiences with H3N2 though not with Subclade K. Until now it has not shown that it is deadlier than earlier H3N2. But if it has the same lethality as in the past, if it could infect more people and by simple math, it will cause more mortality. So, take simple precautions and stay protected. It may not turn into a pandemic but global health systems need to learn lessons and invest in Global Health Security to protect us from next major pandemic.