Islamabad, Kabul on collision course

Diplomatic efforts may still be underway to seek rapprochement between Pakistan and the Taliban regime, but prospects are very slim. Tensions have been simmering between Islamabad and Kabul for several months. At the heart of their troubled ties is the presence of banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other groups on Afghan soil. Despite repeated demands and a series of diplomatic manoeuvres as well as other leverages exercised by Pakistan, there is no end to the cross-border terrorist attacks.

Since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in August 2021, there has been a phenomenal increase in the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Official data shows more than 3,900 Pakistanis including soldiers, officers, police personnel and civilians lost their lives since August 2021. Even for a while if one ignores Pakistan's stance, the numbers speak for themselves.

The TTP clearly felt emboldened and was trying to replicate in Pakistan what the Afghan Taliban did in their backyard. Yet, despite this irrefutable evidence, the Afghan Taliban are not ready to act. Usually in diplomacy, there is always room for some breakthrough. But when the foreign office spokesperson in Islamabad publicly stated that we have run out of patience, it suggested the state of relationship between Islamabad and Kabul.

The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is often shut, albeit temporarily. Given Afghanistan is a landlocked country, it is heavily dependent on Pakistan for bilateral trade as well as trade with the outside world. This has happened for the first time now that the border remains shut for over six weeks. Pakistan has drawn a clear redline. Trade and security cannot be separated.

Islamabad has linked the reopening of the border and the normalisation of a relationship, with Afghanistan taking decisive and irreversible actions against terrorist outfits attacking the country. For the first time, the Taliban regime felt that Pakistan was not issuing a mere threat but meant business. It was because of this reason that Taliban deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghana Baradar recently directed Afghan businessmen and traders to look for alternatives. While Kabul's ties with Islamabad soared, the Afghan Taliban and India were cosying up to each other.

In the space of a few weeks, two senior Taliban ministers travelled to New Delhi in a significant shift. India always regarded the Taliban as a terrorist outfit and proxy of Pakistan; hence it avoided any engagement with the group. But given the current state of relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban on one hand, and Islamabad-Delhi on the other, Kabul and Delhi felt the need for tactical adjustment. India and Afghanistan previously pushed for expanding trade ties through Pakistan, which offered the easiest route for bilateral trade and access to central Asian markets.

But due to a bitter rivalry between Pakistan and India, those prospects remained a pipedream. That was the reason India and the previous US-backed administration in Afghanistan tried to explore options to bypass Pakistan. They entered into a trilateral agreement involving Iran, India and Afghanistan. During the recent visit of the Taliban trade minister, the focus was on developing Chabahar Port to expand trade between India and Afghanistan. But ask Afghan businessmen and traders and they will tell you, there is no immediate or quick solution to Pakistan's option.

The Taliban regime could choose between Pakistan or TTP, and Kabul opted for the anti-Pakistan groups at the expense of losing great advantages. Pakistan never wanted to antagonise Afghanistan or create a situation where Kabul got close to New Delhi. But it was left with no other options after Taliban refused to pay heed to Islamabad's legitimate demands. With the foreign office spokesperson stating that the ceasefire was not holding and the future of the truce looked bleak, the window for a diplomatic solution is fast closing. Last week's drone strike from Afghan soil killing three Chinese workers in Tajikistan and the involvement of an Afghan national in a shooting incident in Washington will only make matters worse for the Taliban regime.