Pakistan shifts to Afghan wait-and-watch policy

ISLAMABAD:

In a significant shift from years of diplomatic firefighting on its western frontier, Pakistan has finally recalibrated its Afghan policy, moving away from any notion of appeasing the Afghan Taliban and instead now following a "waiting game" to unravel things in the neighboring country.

Senior officials familiar with the development say Islamabad is now "comfortable waiting" for political and security conditions in Afghanistan to evolve on their own, a marked departure from the past when Pakistan often felt compelled to intervene or mediate.

The shift is rooted not just in changing regional dynamics but also in Pakistan's mounting frustration over the Afghan Taliban's lack of action against the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Despite repeated engagements and high-level delegations, officials say Kabul has shown little inclination to rein in the group responsible for some of Pakistan's deadliest recent attacks. That lack of progress hardened attitudes in Islamabad.

"We realised we were investing energy without any meaningful outcome," a senior official said. "If the Afghan authorities are unwilling or unable to address our core concern then there is no reason for us to carry the burden of expectations on their behalf."

For years, Pakistan was viewed as the country with unique leverage over the Afghan Taliban. Western governments routinely pressed Islamabad to "deliver" Kabul on issues ranging from counterterrorism to women's rights to inclusive governance. Officials say that expectation placed Pakistan at the centre of global frustration on Afghanistan, despite Islamabad's own security concerns and limited influence.

"Earlier the world kept asking us to persuade the Taliban on different issues," said one official, explaining the exhaustion in Islamabad over repeated international pressure. "Now they finally understand where we stand and what our limitations are."

According to insiders, Pakistan's comfort with stepping back is partly due to a subtle but meaningful evolution in international thinking.

"We are pleased that we no longer need to be bogged down in Afghanistan," a senior policymaker remarked. "For two decades, everything that happened there eventually landed on our plate. Now, the world sees Afghanistan for what it is and sees our role for what it truly is."

A major component of this reorientation is Pakistan's insistence that the world no longer views it as synonymous with the Taliban. Officials say this decoupling was long overdue. For years, global narratives casually paired Pakistan and the Taliban, reinforcing the assumption that Islamabad enjoyed decisive control over the group, an assumption that cost Pakistan diplomatically.

"It is good that the world no longer associates the Taliban with Pakistan," said another official.

The recalibration also comes against the backdrop of emerging geopolitical shifts, including the much-discussed India-Afghanistan reset. New Delhi has revived channels with Kabul, exploring limited engagement, humanitarian assistance, and economic ventures, particularly through Chabahar.

When asked whether Pakistan views India's Afghan outreach as a strategic concern, officials downplayed the development.

"Let them do whatever they wish to do," the official said. "We wish them good luck. If they can find ways to trade through Chabahar, okay... go ahead. We have no objections."

The emerging doctrine envisages Pakistan will not "babysit" Afghanistan, nor will it shoulder the burden of global expectations. The onus is on the Taliban to stabilise their own country and on the world to engage with Kabul based on realities, not assumptions.