After Faiz

All eyes are on Imran Khan.

It is quite remarkable how, whenever he has a chance, Khan makes everything about himself. It is even more remarkable that everyone also makes everything about him.

The more the system tries to pretend it is ignoring him, and the more it insists that he has lost relevance, the more he – strangely enough – continues to be the frame of reference for all matters political.

Take Gen Faiz, for instance.

Since his conviction this week, the question echoing across the land is not what happens to him – that is of secondary concern – the real question is: what happens to Khan. The tantalisingly dangerous last paragraph of the ISPR press release announcing Gen Faiz's sentencing has hinted clearly enough that the former DG ISI's role in the May 9 riots is a matter under active investigation, and is expected to figure prominently in his legal troubles in the days ahead. But the very fact that the press release made a mention of this indicates that the political side of his role will also entangle those who benefited from him. The statement did not need to name the beneficiary. It is clear enough.

What is less clear is how far the system is willing to go to take down Faiz and Khan? The answer to this question, dare one say, will suggest whether we are heading into a Zia-Bhutto moment, or a Musharraf-Nawaz one.

The past, howsoever haunted, can only instruct us about broad historical trends, and lessons rooted in hindsight. And yet, it also reminds us no two situations are similar, and broad parallels can lead to very different outcomes. Decisions made in real time can draw nourishment from history, but those making such decisions must do so while factoring in present dynamics shaped by present adversaries wanting to sculpt a future that retains their dominance.

In such a situation, where he holds no cards except his hold on the imagination of a very large number of Pakistanis, what can Khan do?

Sitting alone in his jail cell, cut off from the rest of the world, and especially from his party, he lacks the basic ingredient of good decision-making: authentic information. His restricted access means not only does he not have proper information he needs to decide the best course of action, he also gets selected perspective from people who are allowed to meet him. In the limited time they have, they provide him information that is – quite naturally – coloured by their own perspective. When Khan makes a decision, it is therefore based on limited information, skewed perspective – and above all – his instincts.

What do these tell him?

A year ago, he tested the option of a deeper engagement with the establishment. This was a time when people like Ali Amin Gandapur, Barrister Gauhar, Barrister Saif – even Fawad Chaudhry – had his ear. The stillborn talks with the government were an attempt to find a middle way. But this option went against Khan's instincts. The system too wasn't interested in much of a compromise that wasn't primarily on its terms.

Since then, the system has got stronger. And more stable. And now, since the Faiz verdict, quite clearly harsher. It faces no immediate threat to its existence. Legitimacy? Yes sure, that dogs it. But in of itself, it does not wield the sword that can decapitate it. Unchecked power fuels its own brand of legitimacy, which in turn creates its own momentum, which in turn incentivises a zero-sum game against opponents.

Khan is faced with this reality. He knows by squeezing Faiz, the system plans to squeeze him further. He also recognises that a system legitimised by its own sheer power does not, if it doesn't want to, play by the rules. Khan understands the traditional centres of power that could provide him relief directly or indirectly – judiciary, international players, street muscle – all are either unable or unwilling to do so.

After Faiz, Khan can see what's coming next. The system believes it has time on its side. It took fifteen long months to deliver the verdict on Faiz's court martial. There's more to come, as the ISPR press release has stated. How long will this take? No one knows. No one wants to guess. At least, not on the record. If Faiz's present conviction, his next conviction is on his role in the events of May 9, and if these proceedings take time, and if in that conviction his links to Khan are made part of the verdict, and if that verdict becomes the basis for a fresh round of cases against Khan, and if those are brought under the jurisdiction of the military courts – if all this were to happen, Khan knows he is looking at a timeframe that could drags on and on because – well, yes because the system believes it has time on his side.

If that's what the system believes, what does Khan believe? If he has faced all that he has faced, what is the worst he can visualise? Khan can go with his instincts. Jail has not broken him. No one knows what he is enduring, and how he is enduring it, and what toll it is taking on him, but from the outside he appears to be braving incarceration with remarkable strength. Instincts may tell him to keep up his defiance. Others in his party who have not endured such suffering may also urge him to keep up his defiance. But this would require supreme patience, supreme steadfastness and supreme belief that time is, in fact, not on the system's side, but on his.

After Faiz, the system has made its choice. Just like systems before made theirs. But each time, it was the system's adversaries whose choices led to outcomes that in turn shaped their fate. Which is why, after Faiz, all eyes are on Imran Khan.