Govt resists IMF mission on $30b gap

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed sending a technical assistance mission to Pakistan to investigate reasons behind a whopping $16.5 billion to $30 billion trade data discrepancy and recommend corrective measures.

Sources told The Express Tribune that the IMF offered to send the mission during the recently concluded talks for the second review of the $7 billion bailout package.

However, the Pakistani authorities were not receptive to the proposal and have not yet given their consent, the sources added.

Authorities argued that they did not need the IMF's involvement to determine the causes behind the huge discrepancy, saying that part of the problem stemmed from raw materials imported under trade facilitation schemes that were not fully booked.

At the same time, there is also a view that contended that the government must ascertain why the raw materials were not booked and whether it was an attempt to evade import and sales taxes or a case of trade-based money laundering.

IMF Resident Representative Mahir Binici did not respond to a request for comment on the Fund's proposal.

When contacted, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Chief Statistician Dr Naeem Uz-Zafar said there was no need for IMF assistance.

"This is the IMF's view, but we do not need technical assistance on trade and did not ask for help in this regard," he said, adding that PBS was technically qualified reconciling the data and addressing the discrepancy.

The Express Tribune reported earlier this month that there were $16.5 billion to $30 billion worth of discrepancies in the import figures over a five-year period.

According to official records, Pakistan Single Window (PSW) booked imports worth $321 billion, while the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cleared $291 billion through banks from July 2020 to June 2025. This revealed a $30 billion gap over a period of five years.

In comparison, Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL), a subsidiary of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), reported $304.5 billion in imports during the same period, $16.5 billion less than PSW's figures, showed the records.

Records show that of this $16.5 billion difference between PSW and PRAL data, $12.8 billion was linked to the export facilitation scheme. Sources said this must be investigated to determine whether any collusion occurred between PRAL officials and importers to evade taxes.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, while delivering a keynote address at the Atlantic Council on "Reform Efforts in Pakistan & the Challenges Ahead" in Washington, detailed the reforms planned for the FBR, focusing on people, process, and technology," according to a Ministry of Finance handout.

The IMF routinely sends technical assistance missions to countries to provide policy advice in specific areas. These missions are separate from bailout programmes. The SBP Act was also amended in 2021 following an IMF technical assistance report.

During a press conference on Friday, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said the government had explained the issue to the IMF, claiming that the Fund was satisfied with the justification.

Earlier, the IMF had asked Pakistan to publicly disclose the billions of dollars' worth of trade data discrepancies. The fund also recommended adopting a clear communication strategy to explain the discrepancies and methodological changed to prevent mistrust between the government and data users.

Pakistan had admitted to the IMF that the trade data submitted to the Geneva-based International Trade Centre (ITC) by PBS was incomplete, with several import figures missing.

Following the report, the SBP clarified that "the SBP's trade data is computed mainly based on trade payments data received from banks; hence, there will be no significant revision in the current account balance data already published by the SBP." The central bank added, however, that minor revisions may continue as per established practice.

Sources said the SBP data may also undergo changes once the $30 billion discrepancy is fully reconciled by matching import shipments with external payments.