China may have cracked 'carbon code'
For the first time in its recent history, China has managed to increase energy use while reducing carbon emissions — a milestone seen as an early sign of "absolute decoupling" and potentially one of the most consequential shifts in global climate politics.
By breaking the historic link between economic growth and rising emissions, China appears to be embarking on a high-stake transition towards a 'post-carbon industrial model', positioning itself as the world's first emerging electrostate.
While many countries have reduced carbon intensity, few have grown economically and consumed more energy while cutting overall emissions.
In the year leading to March 2024, China emitted an estimated 12 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is more than all of Asia combined, and nearly double the emissions recorded in the United States. However, in a striking reversal, emissions during the following year showed a marginal but crucial decline, even as energy consumption continued to rise.
Carbon dioxide emissions per kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity averaged 492 grams during the opening half of 2025, according to data from energy portal electricitymaps.com. This marked the first-ever reading below 500 grams per kWh, down from 514g/kWh during the same period in 2024 and 539g/kWh in the first half of 2023.
The shift comes amid a seemingly contradictory backdrop. In 2023 alone, China approved or began construction of 94 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power plants - enough to power the entire UK grid twice over.
However, at the same time, it began installing renewables at a pace that dwarfs the rest of the world. Over 500GW of wind and solar projects were under construction last year.
The apparent contradiction — a coal station nearly every week, alongside continent-sized solar farms in Inner Mongolia — is part of a redundancy strategy for energy security. Experts note that the newly built coal capacity is not intended to run continuously, but rather to backstop an increasingly renewable-powered grid in times of shortfall.
Despite the rising coal capacity, emissions intensity — the amount of CO2 per unit of GDP — continues to fall, signalling broader structural changes. China remains the world's largest carbon emitter, but its per capita emissions, while higher than the EU and UK, are still lower than the United States. The emissions data comes from research compiled by Lauri Myllyvirta at Finland's Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), using customs data and commodity flows, which experts say is difficult to falsify. While some scepticism remains regarding official Chinese statistics, independent analysts at the Carbon Tracker Initiative affirm the trend as credible.
'Industrial sovereignty'
However, experts argue that this alone cannot explain the decoupling. The more transformative factor is China's state-driven electrification strategy: mass investment in electric vehicles, high-speed rail, electrified industrial processes and grid upgrades, all underwritten by its industrial planning apparatus.
The shift is driven by China's tight control over key supply chains, with near-monopolies in solar-grade silicon, lithium batteries and EV production, cementing its role as the backbone of the post-carbon economy.
Analysts have long pointed out that unlike the EU or US, China's climate response is not shaped by market instruments or carbon pricing alone, but through centralised industrial planning, state-owned enterprise reform, and a long-term view of energy sovereignty. The model allows for planned overcapacity, such as building both coal and renewables, as part of a transition phase, rather than as a sign of policy indecision.
Global stakes
Meanwhile, the implications are geopolitical as much as ecological. With Trump once again pulling out, China is stepping up as a leading force on climate action.
On July 24, 2025, China and the European Union issued a joint statement, pledging to enhance and achieve their climate targets. Without naming the US directly, they referred to "the fluid and turbulent international situation today," stating that "major economies — must step up efforts to address climate change".
Moreover, through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has expanded its renewable energy outreach, funding solar projects in Egypt and wind power development in Ethiopia.
Despite remaining the world's largest coal consumer, China has made major strides in clean energy investment at home, particularly in solar, wind and electrification. In 2024, nearly half of all new renewable energy capacity added globally came from China.
Meanwhile, it is expected that there may be more to come. President Xi Jinping previously pledged to begin emissions reductions before 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Some analysts now believe he may announce a new emissions target for 2035 at the upcoming UN General Assembly.
The writer is a Lahore-based senior journalist