Vietnam ends two-child limit as birth rate plummets

Vietnam has officially ended a decades-old policy restricting families to no more than two children, state media said on Wednesday, as the country struggles with a rapidly declining birth rate and an ageing population.

The regulation, first introduced in 1988, will no longer apply, with family size now left to the discretion of couples, according to the Vietnam News Agency. The change was approved by the National Assembly Standing Committee in Hanoi on Tuesday.

The shift follows alarming demographic trends. In December, the country’s total fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.91 children per woman. That marks the third consecutive year the rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1.

Vietnam’s fertility rate stood at 2.11 in 2021 before slipping to 2.01 in 2022 and 1.96 in 2023, the Ministry of Health reported.

Falling birth rates are particularly stark in major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where urbanisation and rising living costs have made parenting less financially feasible.

“Even though I am Asian, with social norms that say women need to get married and have kids, it’s too costly to raise a child,” said 22-year-old office worker Tran Minh Huong. She said the policy change made no difference to her plans.

Under the previous rules, most families were limited to one or two children, with exceptions granted in special cases. While enforcement was inconsistent, Communist Party members who violated the policy risked penalties, including demotions or dismissal.

Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong recently warned that despite policy shifts and public awareness campaigns, it remains difficult to persuade families to have more children. She cited concerns about long-term socio-economic development, including labour shortages and population ageing.

Vietnam is also grappling with a persistent gender imbalance. The health ministry on Tuesday proposed tripling the fine for foetal sex selection to US$3,800 to deter the practice. Although the gender ratio has improved, it remains skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls.

Hoang Thi Oanh, 45, who has three children, said she received reduced benefits for her youngest due to the old policy. “It’s good that at last the authorities removed this ban,” she said, but added that the cost of raising children remains a major barrier.

Experts say that without significant support measures such as financial incentives, Vietnam may follow the same path as China. Beijing ended its one-child policy in 2016 and began allowing three-child families in 2021, yet birth rates have continued to fall amid economic pressures.

The United Nations Population Fund warned that Vietnam is “in the period of population ageing” and predicted it will become an “aged society” within two decades.