The politics behind Indo-Pak war

Who did Pahalgam, no one may ever know. India has stonewalled any attempt by Pakistan and the vociferous appeal by entire international community to carry out investigations into the incident. That the incident occurred amidst a massive presence of 7-800,000 security personnel deployed to keep Kashmir quiet and controlled leaves a lot to imagination and hence the universal cry for India to conduct transparent, preferably neutral, inquiry before assuming its default recourse to blame Pakistan, an archenemy since inception with which she had already fought four wars.

That the government of India is still posting flyers around Kashmir to request information of the possible attackers would be laughable if over a hundred more people on both sides of the border had not died in a fifth such war. It is not even laughable; it is outright detestable and contemptible considering it was by an aspirational power hoping to find greatness and global eminence.

A fulsome economy alone cannot pass for greatness. It must come with greater responsibility, a better sense of fairness and justness, and an unqualified respect for others to their right to coexist. Plucking deceit and ruse out of thin air it contrived a reason to assert its dominance and complete hegemony and failed miserably, instead hurting its immediate-to-mid-term prospects at the hands of the Pakistan Air Force and a nation that came together like a single bonded entity to thwart what an evil enemy had attempted to impose.

If there are two or even three major lessons that Pakistan can draw from this short war, those are the brilliance of the PAF, the unity this nation can garner as a reflex action despite its various divisions when another nation challenges its existence, and the clarity of thought and decision that the collective leadership of the nation was able to express in such a time of existential threat. Kudos to all elements of the nation which galvanised against all expectations as adversity mounted in the face of an external threat. T

hanks to Modi and the collective silliness of the Indian nation for yet again helping us find our national purpose and thrusting Kashmir front and centre as an international flashpoint. We had been missing this for some time as an aspect of our national discourse. A lot else is attached to this central issue which can impinge security, sustenance, development and progress of the people at large in this region.

But why would India do that? Out of nowhere, without a reason. The two nations were going their separate ways; India having already distanced and disconnected itself from Pakistan; and the two de-hyphenated by the world since Afghan wars had taken the centre position and Pakistan was consumed by happenings on its western borders. I have said so at many places and it is my belief that India had one point left on its agenda on Pakistan which it had to exercise – turns out in absolute foolishness and strategic miscalculation.

Following Kashmir's illegal assimilation by abrogating clauses within the Indian Constitution in 2019, and not a whimper of objection by any in the international community – Pakistan too had willy nilly settled with it other than a routine mention – India planned to stamp its authority as the unquestioned power in the region in the mold of an Israeli clone. That she miscalculated goes without saying. She wanted to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty as symbolic raising of the flag in Pakistan's complete capitulation before the Indian might. It was not to be.

As evinced in many a Track-II that this scribe was a part, Indians have harboured a desire to assert itself unchecked similar to the US under coinage of self-generated euphemisms – such as R2P (Responsibility to Protect) which the US employed when attacking Iraq under trumped up charges – in the style of Israel, and attack at will targets in Pakistan for their role in alleged terrorist acts. This, by itself, is the biggest give-away for Pahalgam being a patently false-flag, self-serving enactment of the Indian apparatus.

Hafiz Saeed's home had already been attacked right inside Lahore through a sponsored terror act by India with a view to murder him. This was way before India's footprints and murderous spree became traceable in Canada, the USA and parts of Europe. Indians entitle themselves to an equal of the USA in the region and openly arrogate to themselves a self-acquiesced right to violate international borders and other nations' sovereignty against phantoms that its evil genius creates. India tried, and what became is now in the annals of military history a case-study in doctrinal dominance.

Conception around possibility is the basis of a hypothesis, but it exists in the realm of probability. For long now India bids for US plan to halt China's great march forward in the region and beyond. China has two axes of connectivity bypassing India on both its flanks, one through Pakistan, and the other through Myanmar and Bangladesh, that irks the West prompting it to enroll India as its proxy to deter and disrupt China's movement in the region. It is possible that the US to fully incorporate India in this role bartered it the concurrence to strike Pakistan and establish its long-dreamt authority of a regional hegemon.

Violation of the international border through direct attacks in Pakistani territory was aimed to create effects that would have served India's unfulfilled dreams. Aimed capitulation was thwarted by Pakistan's 'unwavering strength' (Trump's words). It was a true and sure 'bloody nose' that India is trying to repair in national shame and dejection – hubris gone bust, his pride ground to dust. There are more chapters in this story which isn't yet over. Hence the need to keep the turrets warm and minds sharp.

And now the ultimate intended blow. Had Pakistan quickly touched its threshold forcing it to consider or even use a smaller warning shot from its nuclear arsenal, India and perhaps a few more may have found the cause to conflate terrorism and nuclear weapons in a worrisome combination. The US-India-Israel construct aims to dominate the geopolitical landscape in the middle east and south-west Asia and apportion regional responsibility to minders. Iran, and Pakistan's nuclear potential and capability stand in the way.

Factor in Trump's recent sojourn in the region and open courting of nuclear capability by Saudi Arabia to square off Iran, and the hypothesis turns lethal. A creative Trump and a heinous India could suggest the need for an 'adult' in the room to keep a nuclear conflagration out, had things turned deeply south in the four-day war. Pakistan's Saudi 'brothers' could be the natural fit.

Strategically it would be hook, line and sinker for a Machiavellian design, except the PAF came in the way. We must ensure we never fall for the plot. Conventional equivalence, moral ascendancy and nuclear certainty make for an 'unwavering' nation. Trump's words must find even greater expression as an uncertain future beckons.