Historical analysis of voter turnout in US elections (1828-2020)
Since the 1980s, voter turnout has become more stable but remains susceptible to spikes during high-stakes elections. PHOTO:PEXELS
The history of voter turnout in US presidential elections reflects shifts in the nation's democratic practices and societal evolution. From early 19th-century elections to the latest data from 2020, turnout trends have been shaped by laws on voting rights, political competition, and changes in the population’s voting eligibility. These trends serve as indicators of democratic health, capturing fluctuations in civic engagement over nearly two centuries.
Key Measures of Voter Turnout
In examining voter turnout, analysts primarily use three denominators to measure participation:
1. Voting Age Population (VAP): This includes the total population of legal voting age, which initially was limited to white men but later expanded with voting rights for women and other racial groups.
2. Voting Eligible Population (VEP): This count narrows VAP to include only those legally eligible to vote, excluding noncitizens, incarcerated felons, and other ineligible individuals.
3. Registered Voters: This metric reflects those who have not only met eligibility criteria but have also taken the necessary step of registering to vote.
Each measure gives a different perspective on turnout, with the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) often providing a clearer picture of true participation rates by excluding individuals who cannot legally vote.
Early Trends in Voter Turnout (1828 - 1896)
The period from 1828 to 1896 saw some of the highest voter turnout rates in U.S. history. For example, turnout hit 80.2% in 1840 and reached 81.2% in 1860, illustrating the intense electoral competition and civic engagement of the era. This period of high turnout reflects a time when US democracy was expanding in terms of eligibility—at least among white males—while women and racial minorities were still disenfranchised.
The 20th Century: Shifts in Participation
Turnout began to fluctuate significantly in the early 20th century. For instance, 1920 marked a significant drop to 49.2% turnout. This year coincides with women gaining the right to vote, which initially diluted turnout as many newly eligible voters did not participate immediately. The 20th century also saw the introduction of the Voting Rights Act in 1965, which aimed to dismantle discriminatory practices that prevented African Americans and other minority groups from voting, leading to a gradual but notable increase in turnout in subsequent years.
Turnout rates continued to vary, hovering between 50% and 65% through much of the century. Lower participation in this era has been partly attributed to the rise of restrictive voter registration practices in some states, making it harder for certain populations to vote. Scholars point out that ease of registration correlates strongly with turnout: the easier it is for citizens to register, the higher the turnout tends to be.
Modern Era Trends and the Impact of Electoral Competition (1980 - 2020)
Since the 1980s, voter turnout has become more stable but remains susceptible to spikes during high-stakes elections. For example, the 2008 election, which saw historic voter enthusiasm for Barack Obama, achieved a turnout of 61.6% among the Voting Eligible Population. By 2020, turnout reached a remarkable 65.9% of the Voting Eligible Population, the highest since 1900, likely spurred by high levels of political polarization and the intensity of the contest.
The strong 2020 turnout also suggests the impact of competitive elections in driving voter engagement. Amidst intense political divides and unprecedented challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, voter participation soared as citizens felt the stakes were particularly high.
Insights into Voting Patterns and Voter Accessibility
Research underscores three core propositions that influence voter turnout:
1. Democratic Inclusivity: Higher turnout is often seen as a marker of a healthier democracy. When people feel included and believe their vote matters, turnout rises, reflecting the strength of democratic engagement.
2. Ease of Registration: States with simpler registration processes tend to have higher turnout, indicating that voter accessibility plays a crucial role in civic participation.
3. Electoral Competition: Turnout spikes in contentious elections, where the public perceives a greater impact of their vote on policy direction or national identity.
Data Challenges in Measuring Voter Turnout
Despite comprehensive datasets, historical turnout estimates vary due to changes in record-keeping, shifts in eligibility criteria, and the evolution of voting rights. Before 1920, for instance, data often adjusted for citizens’ eligibility based on then-prevailing norms, such as excluding women. More recent efforts by scholars like Professor Michael McDonald, through projects such as the US Elections Project, have aimed to refine turnout data by adjusting for nuances in eligibility and non-citizen populations, offering a more precise view of eligible voter turnout.
The trajectory of voter turnout in US presidential elections tells a story of evolving democracy, shifting from early highs to mid-20th-century lows and rebounding in recent decades as barriers to participation have diminished. Turnout remains a vital measure of democratic health, influenced by accessibility, electoral stakes, and the inclusivity of the voting process. As new challenges and changes arise, such as debates over voter ID laws and accessibility reforms, the US may continue to see shifts in turnout patterns that will reflect the ongoing pursuit of a more inclusive democracy.