US Electoral College: Why the popular vote doesn’t decide the presidency

In a quirk of American democracy, US citizens don’t actually get to directly choose their president. Instead, that responsibility lies with the electoral college—a process that dates back to the 18th century and has, at times, sparked controversy and confusion.

Every four years, electoral college members—typically party loyalists and officials—gather in each of the 50 states to cast votes for the president. This process happens in December after the general election, and although they hold significant power, these electors remain largely out of the public eye.

In recent years, criticism of the electoral college has grown, especially as two Republican presidents—George W Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016—won the presidency without winning the popular vote. Despite these issues, changes to the electoral college remain unlikely.

What is the electoral college?

The US constitution’s Article II sets out the process for electing the president. Each state has electors equal to its total representation in Congress, with Washington, DC, allotted three electors. In total, there are 538 electors, and a candidate needs 270 votes to win.

Most states use a winner-takes-all approach, where the candidate with the most votes in that state receives all its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska, however, allocate their electors differently, allowing for a mix of statewide and congressional district winners.

Why does the US use an electoral college?

The system was born out of the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, where early discussions proposed that Congress should elect the president. Concerns about the separation of powers prompted a rethink, but direct popular voting lacked broad support. Historian Alexander Keyssar explains in *Why Do We Still Have the Electoral College* that the framers’ concerns included potential bias towards larger states and voters’ limited knowledge of candidates from distant regions.

Racial and regional divisions also played a role. The so-called “three-fifths compromise” boosted southern states' representation by counting enslaved individuals as three-fifths of a person for population purposes, skewing voting power in their favour. A direct popular vote would have diminished their influence, so southern delegates opposed it. Ultimately, the electoral college was a compromise.

What is a ‘swing state’?

A swing state is one where both major candidates have a solid chance of winning, making them crucial battlegrounds. In the 2024 election, key swing states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Since winning the presidency often hinges on these states, candidates focus much of their time and resources there.

The status of swing states can shift with demographic changes. Ohio and Florida, once considered swing states, are now reliably Republican. Meanwhile, Michigan, once a Democratic stronghold, turned red for Trump in 2016.

Does the electoral college allow minority rule?

In five US elections—1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016—the winning president lost the popular vote. Critics argue that this system dilutes individual voting power based on location. For instance, in California, each elector represents over 726,000 people, while in Wyoming, they represent just over 194,000. Such disparities highlight concerns that the system empowers a small number of voters to decide the outcome. In 2020, a mere 44,000 votes in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona were enough to secure Joe Biden’s victory.

Do electors have to vote for a particular candidate?

State parties typically choose electors who are steadfast supporters of their party’s nominee, reducing the risk of ‘faithless electors’—those who cast votes for other candidates. In 2016, seven electors voted against their pledges, marking the first instance since 1972. Many states have laws compelling electors to follow their pledge, and in 2020, the Supreme Court upheld states’ rights to penalise faithless electors.

Why has the electoral college endured?

Efforts to abolish the electoral college began almost immediately after it was created. Historian Alexander Keyssar notes that over 1,000 proposed constitutional amendments to reform or eliminate the system have been filed since 1800, with some coming close. The first proposal for a national popular vote was rejected in 1816 after objections from southern states, where enslaved populations boosted electoral influence but lacked voting rights.

The closest attempt came in the 1960s. George Wallace, a segregationist governor, nearly denied any candidate a majority in 1968, prompting the US House to pass an amendment abolishing the college. However, it stalled in the Senate, where southern lawmakers filibustered. A renewed attempt in 1979 also failed to gain enough Senate support.

“It’s not like we are suddenly discovering this system really doesn’t work,” Keyssar observes, highlighting its entrenched place in US politics.

Could the electoral college be abolished?

The most active effort to circumvent the electoral college is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Under this arrangement, participating states agree to award their electors to the national popular vote winner, bypassing the electoral college system. The compact will only take effect if states with a combined 270 electoral votes—enough to win the presidency—sign on.

So far, 17 states and Washington, DC, with a total of 209 electoral votes, have joined. However, most of the remaining states have Republican-led legislatures or governors, making it unlikely they’ll join. Legal questions also loom, with any challenge to the compact likely heading to the Supreme Court.