US election: Which presidential candidate is better for Pakistan?

Like all parts of the world, countries in South Asia are closely following the US presidential race, keeping an eye out for their interests and preparing to tweak policies based on who among Donald Trump and Kamala Harris prevails on November 5.

Analysts say major regional countries — Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan — are divided in who they would like to be the next US president, but all remain willing to engage with whoever emerges victorious.

On the flip side, US policies are likely to be in the realm of “continuation”, with neither administration applying “a very sharp strategic lens to South Asia”, according to Michael Kugelman, an expert on Washington’s relations with South Asian nations.

“But I do think that you would see a sharper lens, relatively speaking, from Harris than from Trump,” he said.

The US will “investigate possibilities for infrastructure investments in South Asia, working with India for sure to counter China, trying to step up varying levels of cooperation on security levels … especially through maritime cooperation”, Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, told Anadolu.

Pakistan-US ties ‘could change in a big way if Trump wins’

Pakistan is not a major policy priority for the US at this point in time, according to Kugelman.

“I think the government in Pakistan might think, and rightly so, that the current dimensions of the relationship … could change in a big way if Trump were to come back,” he said.

However, issues like climate change and clean energy cooperation, which have become a big part of the relationship with Pakistan, will not be prioritised in case Trump returns, he said.

“If Harris wins the election, I imagine you would see a status quo. There would be continuity in policy, which would basically be to pursue a limited relationship with Pakistan, but still one that would hold out the possibility of great economic support,” he said.

There could also be “assistance and cooperation around some of these big global multilateral challenges like climate change,” he added.

Kugelman said a Trump administration likely would not be interested in these issues, which would be a cause of concern for Pakistan.

Regarding public sentiment in Pakistan, he said supporters of incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan believe Trump would be a better option and could put pressure for his release.

Afghanistan leaning toward Trump

For Afghanistan and the Taliban, they want a US president who will not give them “a hard time”, according to Kugelman.

It was in Trump’s previous tenure that the US negotiated the deal to pull out its troops from Afghanistan, and Harris was part of an administration that supported and enforced the decision, he said.

He believes that the Taliban government might be more inclined towards a Trump administration.

“With Afghanistan, I think the Taliban will be okay with whoever wins, but may lean a bit more toward wanting to see a return of Trump. But in the end … it could live with whoever wins the election,” he said.

Trump as president, he explained, would be less likely to focus on the state of women’s education and human rights in Afghanistan.

“The key question for the Taliban becomes which president would be more likely to want to look into the possibility of scaling up assistance to Afghanistan, particularly assistance for development, with Trump more inclined to look into financing opportunities,” he said.

However, he cautioned that, at the same time, Trump would not want to start violating US sanctions and giving aid to the Afghan government.

Who would India want in the White House?

India, the biggest economy of South Asia and a key US ally, has a level of comfort when it comes to these elections as there is strong bipartisan support in Washington for close ties with New Delhi, according to Kugelman.

There is a strategic imperative of needing to work with India to counter China, he added.

Kugelman believes that the US-India relationship could change if Trump wins, pointing to some major issues that have emerged in cooperation over the last few years, including technology, clean energy and climate change.

Trump’s hard line on export controls could make technology transfers very difficult, he said.

“Tech transfers have become a big part of the US-India relationship. There’s a much greater focus on those than there ever has been before. So, if Trump were to come back and if he were to maintain that hard line on export controls, I think that could cause some major challenges for US-India tech cooperation,” said the analyst.

Another issue is trade as, according to Kugelman, while Trump has been supportive of commercial ties, he has long been unhappy about India’s tariff policies.

“Trump has said relatively little about India on the campaign trail, but what he has said has been focused on India’s tariff policies. He has referred to India as an abuser, and he is referring to its tariff policies and this is very concerning for India,” he said.

“The Indian government would worry about a return of Trump because of the possibility that this could lead to significant changes in the nature of the relationship that could inject some tensions into their relationship.”

At the same time, Kugelman believes New Delhi would prefer to see a return of Trump, mainly because of foreign policy, especially with regards to Russia.

“Russia has become a bit of a constraint for US-India relations because of Russia’s close relationship with India. Trump has taken a more restrained position toward Russia and the war in Ukraine,” he said.

If Harris was to win the presidency, India would continue to feel the pressure from the US about this partnership with Russia, he said.

“India would have reasons to be both concerned and assured if Trump or Harris become president, so basically they could live with it,” he added.

With tensions escalating between Canada and India over the murder of a dissident Sikh activist on Canadian soil, Kugelman said both Harris and Trump could pressure New Delhi on this issue.

“They would not let it go. They would pressure India to carry out an investigation. If Harris were to come, there would be continued efforts on the part of the US to balance its alliance with Canada with its strategic partnership with India, and try to throw its support behind Canada’s efforts to push for an investigation, while at the same time being very careful about how it goes about its relationship with India,” Kugelman explained.

“If Trump were to come back as president, he has traditionally expressed more skepticism to the idea of alliances, and he may not feel as compelled to ensure that level of solidarity with Canada over its own allegations.”

US-Bangladesh ‘relationship has been reshaped’

In Bangladesh, the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus would be hoping for a Harris victory, according to Kugelman.

Dhaka recognises that the relationship with the US has shifted in a big way since the major political changes in Bangladesh,” he said, referring to the August ouster of ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled the country for over 15 years.

“It recognises that the relationship has been reshaped in a way that development assistance and support for reforms have become a big part of the relationship.”

For Trump, Bangladesh knows he likely would not have any interest in shaping any relationship around providing development assistance or support for reforms, said Kugelman.

“Dhaka would likely fear that if Trump were to come back, he would want to scale back the relationship and perhaps make it more about strategic issues, maybe make it more about trade issues,” he continued.

The other challenge for Bangladesh, he added, is that this new government “is much more inclined to strengthen relations with China than the previous government.”

“Sheikh Hasina did strengthen ties with China for sure, but I think this government wants to strengthen relations with both the US and China, which makes sense from the perspective of strategic autonomy,” said Kugelman.