US election: Polls show tight race between Harris, Trump with one week to go

Over 41 million Americans have cast their votes through early in-person and mail-in ballots as of Sunday

With just eight days remaining before the election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris ramped up their campaigns in key battlegrounds.

Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, highlighting his hardline stance on immigration, pledging to deport what he referred to as “vicious and bloodthirsty criminals.”

Meanwhile, Harris focused her efforts in Pennsylvania, urging citizens not to sit on the sidelines. “We are focused on the future and the needs of the American people,” she stated.

As of midday Sunday, over 41 million Americans had cast their votes through early in-person and mail-in ballots, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. This early turnout is significant, although it falls short of the over 100 million votes cast before Election Day in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Recent polling reflects a tightly contested race. A CBS News/YouGov poll indicates Harris leading Trump nationally with 50% to his 49%, a result that remains within the survey's margin of error.

The poll also highlights a gender divide: Trump leads among male voters 54% to 45%, while Harris claims 55% of female voters to Trump’s 43%.

Perceptions of leadership qualities also show divergence; men are more likely to view Trump as a strong leader, whereas women are more inclined to trust Harris's mental and cognitive health for the presidency.

FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker shows Harris slightly ahead nationally, leading by 1.4 percentage points. However, the race is tightening, with the gap narrowing from 1.7 points the previous week.

Harris maintains a narrow lead in crucial states like Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump edges ahead in Pennsylvania and Nevada and holds a stronger lead in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.

Notably, all seven states are within two points of each other, indicating that they are essentially toss-ups as voters prepare to head to the polls.