Trump makes gains in 19 swing states: Poll

Former President Donald Trump has made significant gains across 19 states, including several key battlegrounds, according to an election forecast by pollster Nate Silver.

Trump’s momentum appears to be increasing in crucial swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina, as well as in traditionally Republican states such as Florida and Texas.

In Florida, one of the most critical battleground states, Trump has seen his largest boost, gaining 1.8 points over the past week.

He now leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 5.2 points.

Trump’s lead in Florida is seen as a key indicator of his overall strength, given the state’s importance in securing electoral votes.

Florida’s 29 electoral votes make it a must-win for Trump, and the latest figures show he is consolidating his support there.

The Republican candidate has also made notable gains in other key states like Arizona and Michigan. In Michigan, a state that Biden narrowly flipped in 2020 after Trump won it in 2016, Trump has gained 0.9 points, narrowing Harris’s lead to 1.1 points.

Michigan, part of the critical “blue wall” of Midwestern states, is seen as a bellwether for the election, and Trump’s resurgence there signals the competitiveness of the race.

Swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have also shown movement in Trump's favor. In Wisconsin, Trump gained 0.8 points, while Harris’s lead has tightened to 1.2 points.

In Pennsylvania, where both campaigns are heavily focused, Trump has gained 0.3 points, leaving Harris with only a narrow 0.5-point lead.

Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are pivotal to the election, with Nate Silver’s forecast indicating that the state could determine the winner.

While Harris still holds narrow leads in several battleground states, Trump’s recent polling gains indicate a tightening race.

Harris’s lead in Nevada has shrunk by 0.4 points, and in Pennsylvania, which she needs to secure her path to victory, Trump is close to overtaking her.

Trump’s surge has been supported by gains in Republican strongholds like Texas, where he has further solidified his base, as well as in more surprising areas such as California, Maryland, and New Mexico.

While Trump is unlikely to win these Democratic strongholds, his increased support there could be indicative of broader national trends favoring the Republican candidate.

In Nebraska, a traditionally Republican state, Trump’s vote share rose by 1.6 points, including in the competitive 2nd Congressional District, which awards an Electoral College vote separately from the state’s overall result.

This district could be crucial in a tight race where every electoral vote counts.

Nationally, Harris still holds a slight advantage over Trump, but the margin has been narrowing. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and other aggregators show Harris leading by 2.4 to 3 points.

However, as the election draws nearer, both campaigns are focusing intensely on key battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome.

The latest ActiVote poll, conducted between October 3 and 8, showed Trump leading Harris nationally by 1.2 points, the first national poll to give Trump a lead since September.

Trump has maintained or slightly increased his lead in traditionally Republican states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. In Arizona, he is now ahead by 1 to 2 points, while in Georgia, Harris has made slight inroads but still trails Trump by less than a point.

Georgia, a state that flipped Democratic in 2020, remains fiercely contested, with both campaigns pouring resources into the race.

Polling analysts suggest that the economy and inflation remain top issues for voters in these states, with many leaning towards Trump as the better candidate to handle these concerns.

In Pennsylvania, a recent CBS/YouGov survey indicated that 82% of registered voters consider the economy a major factor in their decision, followed by inflation at 78% and the state of democracy at 70%.

Despite Trump’s gains, Harris’s campaign has also made strides, particularly among suburban voters and middle-income households, key demographics that will be essential to winning swing states.

According to Reuters/Ipsos polls, Harris has pulled ahead in suburban areas, where Biden struggled to energize voters earlier in the campaign.

Harris now leads Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters, a nine-point swing from earlier in the race. She has also made inroads with middle-income households, a group that leaned toward Trump in 2020.

Polling experts note that while Harris has gained ground with some key voting blocs, Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, particularly in the Rust Belt, remains strong.

In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump’s message on the economy and immigration has resonated with many white working-class voters, a demographic that played a crucial role in his 2016 victory.

Harris, meanwhile, has focused her campaign on issues like affordable healthcare, protecting democracy, and economic fairness, which have helped her make inroads with middle-class voters.

Her campaign has highlighted her 'ability to stand up against political extremism,' an issue that has resonated with suburban and moderate voters.

As the race tightens, both campaigns are doubling down on efforts in the remaining weeks before the election.

Harris’s chances of winning hinge on her ability to secure 44 electoral votes from toss-up states, while Trump needs 51 to claim victory.

Polls show that Harris is still favoured to win in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District, but Trump’s resurgence in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona has made the race too close to call.

With less than a month to go, the 2024 election is shaping up to be another razor-thin contest, with both candidates vying for a narrow path to the White House.