Ismail Haniyeh’s exit

The assassination of Hamas chief could not have been dreamt, at least inside Iran. Ismail Haniyeh, who was taken out allegedly by Israel somewhere near Tehran, has led to fears of escalation in the region, and dropping of jaws in Iran’s revolutionary edifice. It is a security lapse for the Islamic Republic that such a high-profile guest was exterminated by one of the arch-rivals in a smartly choreographed precision strike. While Tehran has not responded in any strategic terms, other than the rhetoric of condemnation, the killing will surely lead to more instability and intensification of ongoing Arab-Israeli divide.

Haniyeh, the brand leader of resistance for the Palestinians, has survived several attempts on his life, and had the courage to bear the loss of his three sons in the conflict over Gaza. His dare-devil killing must have come as a déjà vu for Iran, as it was in the format of Qasim Soleimani’s murder in Iraq by the US-Israeli combine. Likewise, Hezbollah too had lost almost all of its chiefs, except one, in Israeli offensives, and Haniyeh’s exit came at a time when Gaza is obliterated and war is looming on the horizons of Lebanon and Syria.

This deteriorated security paradigm calls for intensive thinking, and any misreading of the blurred canvas by warring factions could lead to wider regional catastrophe. Taking into account the volatility of the situation and popularity of Hamas chief, the plot resembles the assassination of Austrian Prince Franz Ferdinand that led to World War I.

While Israel is conspicuous by its silence and the US has expressed its brute ignorance, the killing will reverberate in the restive plains of the Middle East. From Yemen to Lebanon and from Syria to Iraq, Iranian non-state actors are unlikely to sit idle, and a calculated rejoinder from Tehran cannot be ruled out. Likewise, Hamas had already retorted by saying, “Hamas is a concept and an institution and not persons.” That squarely can be interpreted as a call to more resistance, and this time with fissures across the borders of Mideast. It could be a prelude to more disasters.