Pakistan, Afghanistan impasse

On March 18, Pakistan targeted what it called terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan in cross-border airstrikes. The strikes, however, were not surprising. Tensions between Pakistan and the de facto rulers of Kabul have been simmering for months over the presence of terrorist groups threatening Pakistan’s security. Before resorting to the rare cross-border strikes, Pakistan had repeatedly conveyed its concerns to the Afghan Taliban over the use of Afghan soil by terrorists.

When terrorists had struck a military centre in DI Khan in December in which 23 soldiers were martyred, Pakistan told the Afghan Taliban government that any future attack would invoke a strong response. That warning did not deter the terrorist outfits and their patrons. On March 16, terrorists rammed a explosives-laden vehicle at a checkpost in Mir Ali, North Waziristan. There were multiple suicide bombings afterward. The incident resulted in the martyrdom of 7 Pakistani soldiers including two officers. Such was the enormity of the incident that the President and entire top brass attended the funeral of those who lost their lives in the attack. Two days later, the inevitable happened. Pakistan carried out what it said was an intelligence-based anti-terrorist operation inside Afghanistan.

The Foreign Office said strikes were aimed at the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, which claimed responsibility for the Mir Ali attack. The Afghan Taliban confirmed the strikes even before Pakistan released a statement. Kabul insisted that only civilians were killed in the Pakistani strikes. However, the situation on the ground suggested that Pakistan’s strikes were pinpointed and at least 8 locations were targeted — all being used by terrorist groups. The Taliban authorities seem to have withheld all the details about the strikes. they did not let anyone go near the strikes sites in an attempt to hide the actual details. If those details were made public that would put them in an embarrassing situation. However, multiple independent accounts suggest that the Afghan Taliban were harbouring the banned TTP and other groups.

What is significant in the ongoing spat is that Pakistan is now openly saying that certain elements within the Taliban government are using TTP as a proxy against the neighboring country. This was quite a shift in Pakistan’s policy, which in the past accused the Indian intelligence agencies of funding and supporting TTP. There was also departure from Pakistan’s earlier stance regarding the air strikes. Pakistan conducted the similar strikes in April 2022 but never acknowledged it publicly. This time, however, Pakistan did. There has been skepticism about this hardline approach by Pakistan. Critics feel this may be counterproductive as Taliban may inflict further damage on Pakistan through proxy attacks. But there is a feeling within the decision-making circles that Pakistan has had enough of it. The Taliban have been given enough time and space to deal with the terror threat. On top of that, Pakistan particularly the security establishment felt betrayed that the Afghan Taliban are hurting their interests despite the fact that the country took the blame for playing a double game in the war on terror due to its support for the insurgent group during the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. There were genuine expectations that the Taliban government would return the favour by neutralising the elements posing a threat to Pakistan’s security. But to the contrary, the Taliban have not only refused to act against TTP but they are backing them both in terms of men and material.

After the strikes in April 2022, tensions de-escalated as Taliban persuaded TTP to agree on a ceasefire and restart negotiations with Pakistan. But the latest strikes may not lead to a thaw. The reason is that Pakistan is no longer interested in talking to TTP. It has only one demand that the Afghan Taliban should ensure that TTP and its affiliates pose no more threat to Pakistan’s interests and security. Taliban are adamant that talks are the only way forward. Therefore, March 18 cross-border strikes may not be the last.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 25^th, 2024.

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