Year full of changing political fortunes drawing to a close

A year unlike any other in Pakistan’s politics is drawing to a close and while it remains to be seen whether this year’s uncertainties and chaos will follow into the next year, it has now been proven beyond measure that political fortunes change at breakneck speed in the country.

The year, which started off with the premature dissolution of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s assemblies, saw the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) riding an unprecedented popularity wave, which at times seemed like it would drown all of the party’s political opponents in its wake.

The popularity was aided by a heavily under-fire Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led federal government, which could not seem to catch a break owing to the myriad of crises it was engulfed in. And then came the PTI’s, now former chairman, Imran Khan’s arrest from the premises of the Islamabad High Court, which was followed by hooliganism and destruction of state property on May 9th.

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Although Khan was released after the violent protests, his party did not survive the fall out that ensued after May 9th. Some political observers termed it as “the empire strikes back.” Khan is presently behind bars in multiple cases and with the year ending, his party is under the Chairmanship of Barrister Gohar Khan, and its popularity is a mere shadow of what it was at the start of the year.

What has further exacerbated the party’s crises is the resurgence of its main competitor in Punjab - the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N). This resurgence of the party, which carried the brunt of the blame for the double-digit back-breaking inflation whilst it was in power, has been aided by the return of its Quaid, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.

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Sharif, who was incarcerated at that time, left the country in 2018 on health grounds, and then remained in self-exile, returned to Pakistan, in October, to face the cases of graft against himself. His return was touted as a grand affair and his party left no stone unturned in conducting a mammoth jalsa at the famous Greater Iqbal Park in Lahore.

Nevertheless, only the upcoming general election will decide whether the presently incarcerated Khan is as popular as he used to be or whether Sharif’s return put the PML-N on track to form a government in the centre. It is pertinent to mention here that post May 9th, PTI has been consistently complaining of not having a level playing field, given that all of its senior leadership is either in jail, has left the party, or quit politics altogether.

And now the party has pinned its hopes on the High Courts and the Supreme Court of Pakistan to provide them with a level playing field. Be that as it may, Adeel Malik, an associate professor at Oxford University, who researches on political economy of development, with a focus on Pakistan, believes that the upcoming elections will help bring stability.

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“Instability dominated the political chessboard in 2023 and it will only end once the people have their say on February 8th of 2024,” observed Malik. However, the professor cautioned that since the ruling system had suffered a huge loss of legitimacy during the year, “only free and fair polls would provide stability.” Malik further said that it was apparent that the populace was tired and angry with all of the political stakeholders in the country due to the economic downturn.

“Therefore, regardless of who is in power, reforms are the need of the hour,” he concluded. Raza Ahmad Rumi, a policy analyst and journalist, concurs. “If the incoming government manages to stabilise the economy, regulate the power-sharing formula with the powers that be, and activate the inert parliament there may be a chance of democratic consolidation,” he asserted.

“What will be particularly interesting to observe in the new year would be as to how the new dispensation handles thorny issues like political prisoners such as Imran Khan and his supporters, the nationalist movements in the north west and south of the country, and regional engagement with India and Afghanistan,” added Rumi while talking to The Express Tribune.